Okay, when it comes to the Thrashers, it is important to not get too carried away with one's expectations, but after last night's thorough shellacking of the New York Islanders (by a count of 6 to 3), expectations have been ramped up significantly as the Thrashers have moved into bonafide playoff contention. The young boys of Blueland don't (photo by Hyosub Shin - ajc.com) seem to realize they are supposed to suck worse than a Jeff Schultz op-ed on the state of the Thrashers and are now sitting, even if a bit tenuously, in the 8th slot of the Eastern Conference standings. By virture of games-in-hand on the two teams with whom they are tied (2 w/r/t New York Rangers & 3 w/r/t Montreal Canadiens) for 8th, the Thrashers are technically, mathematically and officially in the playoff hunt. Truth be told, you are not "officially" in the hunt unless you are within 3 or 4 points of the 8 seed on the other side of the Trade Deadline bonanza of player swapping. Well, it's March 5th on my calendar and the Thrashers are "officially" in the hunt for the first time since the spring of 2007...you know, the same year they were unceremoniously swept from the playoffs in 4 straight games?
Earlier in the week, I pondered whether the Thrashers are a legitimate threat to challenge for the post-season Stanley Cup tournament. Prior to the last two games in which they outscored Florida and Long Island by a combined score of 10 to 5, I had my suspicions that the Thrash were indeed a team to be taken seriously over the last quarter of the regular season. Apparently, I am not alone as we are even seeing more national media attention from the likes of The Hockey Writers and Greg "Puck Daddy" Wyshynski at yahoo.com, both of whom are picking the Thrashers to make the playoffs.His last 10 games........309 shots faced; 286 shots stopped; 23 goals allowed for a .926 SV% & a GAA of 2.28.....a record of 6 - 2 - 2 for 14 points....7 of these games minus Ilya Kovalchuk
On the season (34 appearances).....957 shots against (avg of 30.87); 878 saves for a .917 SV%; 79 goals allowed for a GAA of 2.55.....a record of 16 - 9 - 5 for 37 points (.638 pts earned % for 29 games started)....pretty much all you need to know.
At the age of 36, nearly 37 in fact, Johan "Moose" Hedberg has been nothing short of remarkable! Moose has performed at or near this same level of effectiveness all season long. While he slumped a bit in December, it was nowhere near as bad as Ondrej Pavelec's struggles and Hedberg helped earn most of the measley 9 points they garnered that miserable month. Thus, the most important key to Thrashers' success may be the continued stellar play of Hedberg. Can his body hold up -- more than likely yes as he keeps himself in superb physical condition -- and will he survive the mental strain of being the # 1 goaltender for the first time since he back-stopped the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2001-'02? Perhaps Moose will duplicate his superlative 27 game run at the end of the 2001 season in which he lifted the Pens to an appearance in the Eastern Conference Finals.
Okay, I'll be back after a workout,
shower and dinner to bring you the rest of my statistical keys which illustrate why the Thrashers very well may be for real THIS YEAR. If you don't believe the hype, then you betta' Czech yoself!! 'Cuz the Czech not-so-"Sweetums" (copyright K-belle) might just be lurking behind you and suddenly...BAM!!! It's lights out when you least expect it!!! (this pic courtesy of the Bleacher Report)
# 2 Key -- Team Defense:
Season Averages........SOG Against avg of 33.35; adjusted GAA of 3.03 (does not include Shoot-out Goals or ENGA); season-long Save % of .909; Goal Differential of -6 (no S/O GA or ENGA); Even Strength Goal Diff of -6
First 31 Games.........SOG Against avg of 34.48; adjusted GAA of 2.74 (no S/O GA or ENGA); half-season Save % of .920; Goal Diff of + 7; ES Goal Diff of +2
Second 31 Gms..........SOG Against avg of 32.42; adjusted GAA of 3.32 (no S/O GA or ENGA); half-season Save % of .897; Goal Diff of -13; ES Goal Diff of -8
Looking at these numbers, it would appear as though the Thrashers are sliding in the wrong direction. The second half team defense numbers look considerably worse than the first half numbers. And the first half record bears that out as the Thrashers were 17 - 11 - 3 with a .597 points earned percentage. But it is not an open and shut case. You must go deeper into the numbers to see the underlying story.
Simply put, the month of December was absolutely dreadful for the Thrashers. Out of a possible 30 points available in the schedule, the T-birds managed to earn a mere 9 points (.300 PE%). They started their longest winless streak of the season (9) and suffered through a miserable Holiday road trip that did not end until Epiphany, strangely enough. But that's when the team's goaltending was its absolute worst. For their worst 10 game stretch (1 - 6 - 3 record), the SV% of .866 kept them out of the win column all but once. The average of SOG against was not disastrous at 32.80, but the heavy shot total throughout late Oct & November took its toll. Not even a potent offense that potted 33 goals, on the strength of a 11.54 shooting percentage, could overcome such pitiful goaltending and blueline rebound support.
The good news is that, beginning with the January 7th contest against the New York Rangers, the Thrashers gradually started to turn a corner. While they suffered a colossal failure just two nights later -- in front of a near sellout home crowd -- at the hands of the Washington Capitals, Coach Anderson was starting to convince the majority of his players the importance of playing as a cohesive unit that back-checks aggressively and helps to limit the other team's chances in their own zone. Results in the form of wins were slow to come, but an examination of the numbers shows that improvement was not only happening, but a paradigm shift was starting to take root.
Last 20 Games........SOG Against Avg of 32.25; adjusted GAA of 2.75; Save % of .915; Goal Diff of Even; ES Goal Diff of +5......a record of 10 - 6 - 4 (24 pts) for a Points Earned % of .600 (and these numbers INCLUDE the 8 to 1 blitz-krieg bombing they suffered at the hands of the league-leading Capitals)
So as you can see, the team's commitment to Coach Anderson's system was renewed at the turn of the year and the tangible evidence are the improved team defense numbers. The GAA average of 2.75 is back down to what it was during the first 31 games when the Thrashers were 6 games over .500 and in the Top 5 of the Eastern Conference standings. The Shots on Goal Against have come down to a reasonable average of 32.25 while the team Save % is a very respectable .915, again in the same realm as the first 31 games. Not only are these numbers much improved, but the sample size is large enough to lead one to believe that this is more than just a temporary blip on the statistical radar.
# 3 Key -- Team Chemistry:
You don't have to know much about the Thrashers to know that the squad's leading scorer, and face of the franchise, Ilya Kovalchuk, was traded before the Olympics to the New Jersey Devils. In return, the Thrashers procured a veteran D-man named Johnny Oduya (of Sweden) who is not only a sound positional defenseman, but also a pretty savvy puck mover and passer. Most notably though, the centerpiece of the deal for the Thrashers was a 22 year-old rookie by the name of Niclas Bergfors (also from Sweden), who is known for his quickness, fluid skating and dangerous hands. What we didn't realize was just how dangerous those hands could be. Bergie has shown in just 7 games how skilled he is by netting 5 goals already, all of a different variety from different parts of the ice.
But most importantly is the natural chemistry he seems to have with RW Bryan Little, who has been reinvigorated by the presence of Bergfors, and old (30 is now old on this team) reliable, center Nik Antropov, who is quietly enjoying the best season of his career -- hat tip to Don Waddell for signing this guy. Recently, Antropov was quoted (and I'm paraphrasing here) as saying of his new winger, "we've only been together for 5 games, but already it seems like 5 years." There is a twinkle in big Nik's eyes and if you didn't see some of the recent video of him on Monday morning in which players went out through the city to "wake up Atlanta" by handing out free coffee, then you may not know what I mean.
However, Antropov's play has spoken for itself. After a shaky first game against the Caps -- Bergie and Johnny hadn't even had a chance to practice with the team yet -- in which he was scoreless and a -2, Nik "the Human Eclipse" Antropov has been red hot. Over the last six games, Nik has scored 3 times and assisted on 8 others, most of them to Bergfors or Little of course. And the big center is still getting it done defensively despite a nagging hip injury that has slowed his already lumbering stride. But his +4 over the last 6 games speaks volumes as he has gone up against the likes of Kane & Toews in Chicago, Stastny & Duchene in Colorado and team nemesis Stephen Weiss of Florida twice.
Chemistry was already evident in the play of the line combination featuring 18 y/o rookie Evander Kane, the sound 2-way play of Colby Armstrong and centered by resurgent Jimmy Slater who is known for his second-half scoring. But the chemistry they've had for the last 15 or 16 games has been unmistakable. They are the team catalysts now and their relentless, grind-it-out style -- not to mention sneaky goal scoring -- has frustrated other teams' 1st and 2nd lines. The "Shredded Cheese" line has been shredding opposition forwards with 5 goals, 9 points and a +4 rating over the 7 games sans Kovalchuk. The only thing missing has been consistent scoring production from the team's "second" line of Todd White, Rich Peverley and Max Afinogenov.
Without a doubt there is skill and talent on the Pevs' White Russian line, but the chemistry has been next to zilch for the most part. Luckily, since last January, that line has managed to play decent hockey without being a huge defensive liability like earlier in the year. Pevs has been a -1 since January 14th, while Afinogenov has been a solid +3. They've had to deal with a revolving door of linemates and that surely hasn't helped their production. But recently they've been better since Todd White was put back in the line-up on January 23rd. Even Whitey, who has struggled all year long, has found the back of the net twice, dished out 3 assists and played to an E rating over his last 11 games. More importantly, Coach Anderson has found his best line combos and he's seemingly sticking with them....with one notable exception: Clark "the Grizz" MacArthur, who was acquired on Trade Deadline Day from the Buffalo Sabres for two middle-round picks.
In MacArthur's very first game, albeit against a fading Islanders team, he dented the twine with a "Johnny-on-the-spot", crease-crashing stick-back (after Afinogenov forechecked the D-man into coughing up the puck in front). Now it's just one game, but the blazing fast trio of C-Mac, Smaximum Finnies and Ten Gallon Dick Peverley seems to have the potential to be quite the dynamic scoring threat. And that is just what you need for a 20-game race to the playoffs: scoring that comes from everywhere. Typically, the Pevs MacFins line will get matched up against weaker lines (compared to the "Dull Razor" line....hat tip to Rawhide of ajc.com fame) and scoring chances should come fast and furiously for them.
Which brings me, I know....mercilessly, to the final segment of this blog, which will probably get rendered meaningless when we get owned by a certain Finnish goaltender with a funny name. But alas, hope does spring eternal when there is some serious chemistry cooking in the "LAB" as well as the locker room. Just a quick peek at the recent shooting percentages of the team's Top 5 scorers (and Jim Slater) juxtaposed with their previously slumping (see December scoring)season averages, and you see quite plainly that there is reason for optimism!
Name.......Ssn Avg Shts.....Ssn Sht %.....7 Gm Sht Av.....7 Gm Sht %
Bergfors........2.61................11.3%..............3.43................20.8%
Antropov......1.57.................17.8%............2.29................18.8%
Afinogen.......2.35.................13.7%..............3.00...............14.3%
Peverley.......2.03.................15.1%...............2.00...............14.3%
E. Kane.........1.95..................11.8%...............1.71................25.0%
J. Slater........1.80.................10.8%..............2.43...............05.9%
Now, why did I include Jim Slater, who isn't known for his soft hands around the net? Simply to illustrate the fact that shots usually taken by Ilya Kovalchuk, who led all forwards in even strength ice-time at the time of the trade (if I recall correctly), are now going to players like Bergfors, Antropov, Afinogenov, Slater (which benefits Kane & Armstrong) and Little too. The best part of this scenario is that Bergfors, Antropov and Kane are getting more grade-A scoring chances to score. Why is that significant? Because they have the best "hands" on the team or simply the ability to beat goalies when given time and space. Give them more shots -- and Berg-force One is really benefitting -- and look what happens!
Perhaps the sample size is too small, but I've watched all 7 games since the trade. There is no doubt that these players are not only playing with more confidence, but there is better chemistry, which is leading to better scoring chances, rebound opportunities and even "easy" goals. But the L-A-B line is just one example.
Peverley and Afinogenov are now starting to get on the same page and Fins seems more comfortable with the idea of driving the lane and getting to places on the ice where Peverley can find him as opposed to the other way around. If the addition of MacArthur does one thing, it adds an even more dangerous element of speed on both wings. Now Pevs can do what he does best and "dispense" the puck to both sides and the line won't fall prey to a defense that cheats to one side looking for Mad Max to break somebody's ankles.
There's no guarantee that our revamped "2nd line" will click like the L-A-B line, but it sure will be fun watching what happens. If the last couple of games are any indication, we are in for one helluva fun ride!!
