After 24 Games, Thrashers in Flight to Greater Heights, BUT WAIT!!!

Who is that guy to the right you ask? Why it's Maxim-um"Thrills, Chills & Spills" Afinogenov, erstwhile winger and human hi-light reel of the Atlanta Thrashers, circa November 30, 2009. But J.C., you do realize Max isn't coming back to the Thrashers right? Of course I do! Then why must you open old wounds by dredging up painful memories of a season lost?

In short, because the timing could not be better. It has been exactly one year to the day since the Thrashers were riding high off their dramatic win over the Florida Panthers in which "Fins for the Win" banged home a feed from Nik Antropov with only 6 ticks of time left on the clock. The breathtaking win gave the Thrashers their 4th win in a row to close out a scorching hot November, a month in which they put together two 4-game winning streaks in a span of 3 weeks to assume one of the top-6 rungs in the Eastern Conference standings. Alas, the seemingly lofty perch would prove too dizzying for this bird with faulty wings and they would plummet back down to earth with a resounding thud to the frozen December landscape. See, before Thrashers fans let their imaginations run wild in the tantalizing wake of this current 5-game winning streak, I feel it is my duty to offer up this cautionary tale of warning so any grandiose dreams of a date with playoff-berth "Dustin-y" (as in Byfuglien) are exploded into a smoking, pile of regret-strewn wreckage.

Speaking of regret, somwhere in the suburbs of Tampa, FL, former Thrashers' D-man Pavel Kubina is probably still muttering in his sleep as nightmares of last season's tragic demise rattle around in his pysche. Perhaps his deep slumber ramblings sound something like this:
“...it starts with the goalies...they’ve been unbelievable. Pavs and Moose have made unbelievable saves in unbelievable performances...We’ve been better at reducing turnovers in our own zone and we’ve been working on it in practice. The penalty-killing has been awesome. Guys are diving to block shots, and it’s a great team effort. It’s fun to be around.” -- excerpt gleaned from Tom Saladino's Associated Press recap of the 11/30/09 contest vs FLA

Well, doesn't that post-game refrain sound eerily familiar? As the blogospheric media buzz revs up into a full-tilt frenzy over the "Thrashawk" led T-birds, who just completed an impressive 9-day span in which 4 of their 5 straight wins came against the likes of Washington, Detroit, Montreal and Boston, fans must fight the temptation to think this team has suddenly arrived as a bona fide Stanley Cup contender. While the recent run of success has been incredibly fun, we must remind ourselves that this team is still a work in progress. And lest we overlook the fact they find themselves in a very similar position to last year's team, which choked it's season away during a disastrous December by effectively losing 9 straight games to finish the month. So why am I sounding the alarm of tempered expectations?? Because I'm a Thrashers fan silly, of course!

But seriously, the statistical similarities between this season and last are quite striking when juxtaposed. After surveying the numbers, any seasoned fan worth their salt would tell you to rein in your expectations, especially when dealing with such a young team not totally familiar with the treacherous effects of random injuries, winter travel and mid-season fatigue that can quietly erode any player's mental state. Before last year's late-December tumble into the doldrums, the Thrashers were sitting pretty with a record of 14 - 7 - 3 after winning 8 of 11 games, ten of which followed the return of Ilya Kovalchuk from injury. This season, the Thrashers struggled to a 6 - 6 - 3 record before winning 6 of their next 9 games to move into sole possession of 7th place in the Eastern Conference. Even more interesting is how these two very different teams arrived at very similar points after 24 games.

To wit:

2009-'10: 79 GF vs. 65 GA on 845 shots* allowed with a save percentage of .9231

2010- '11: 75 GF vs. 65 GA on 843 shots* allowed with a save percentage of .9224

*goals scored and shots allowed adjusted to remove both shootout goals & EN goals

I told you the statistical similarities were striking!! Did I mention both teams started the season with a record of 5 - 4 - 1? And get this, each team scored goals at a very similar rate during their aforementioned hot streaks, both of which preceded the 25th game on their respective schedules. The 2009 Thrashers, sparked by the Russian-born "Comrade Connection", crinkled the twine 38 times in 11 games during an 8 - 1 - 2 stretch. And the 2010 edition, featuring former 'Hawks Andrew Ladd and "Big Dusty Buff" as catalysts, have recently completed a 37 goal onslaught over their last 11 games for a 6 - 4 - 1 mark going into game #25 versus Colorado later tonite. Lastly, both teams had similar goal differentials during their November streaks: plus-14 in 2009 compared to a plus-12 (adjusted for shootouts) during this most recent tear.

So as you can see, such a statistical comparison would give any earnest fan pause. But before you start stuffing hate mail into my comments "inbox", please know that this particular fan, who has been duped by fool's gold before, does harbor some seriously strong optimism with respect to this newest installment of Thrashers' teams. Perhaps I'm just being foolhardy again, but I do have more statistical fodder for my grist mill of cautious optimism. For that, you must tune in again on Wednesday when I present my case as to why this team is different. See you then!

Thrashers Treat Bruins Like B's, Win 5th Straight

Led by the heroics of forward-in-defenseman's clothing, Dustin Byfuglien, the Atlanta Thrashers snapped an 0 - 8 - 2 streak of futility against the visiting Boston Bruins with a resounding 4 to 1 win. Byfuglien, who tallied a goal and two assists on the evening, sparked his mates to another convincing win on home ice. This time, the boys in blue decided to not wait until the 2nd period to seize control of the game scoring 3 successive goals in just over 6 minutes during the middle stages of the opening stanza. Goals by Evander Kane, the charismatic Byfuglien and Jimmy "I can't believe he scored on a breakaway" Slater helped flip the script on a Boston Bruins team that is quite accustomed to pushing the Thrashers around like school-yard bullies. But this time the Thrashers would not give up their lunch money as Byfuglien used Philips Arena ice to dole out his unique brand (photo courtesy of AP, yahoo.com) of punishment under the watchful eye of towering Norris Trophy winner Zdeno Chara.

Also critical to the Thrashers' success against the Beantown Bullies was the steady and sometimes spectacular play of goalie Ondrej Pavelec, who made several critical saves in the 2nd period to make sure the Thrashers maintained a comfortable margin. Not long after Blake Wheeler beat Pavelec with a hard wrister from the right face-off dot to cut the lead to two, the Czech known to Blueland faithful as "Opie" thwarted Brad Marchand's point-blank snap-shot with his deft glove-hand. On the ensuing face-off, Pavelec would make another key save with his lightning quick blocker, steering aside a hot shot hammered by Johnny Boychuk from the right point. Boston elevated their level of play after resident tough guy Shawn Thornton dominated a willing and scrappy Eric Boulton in what was the second "tete a tete" of the period. The B's were buzzing after the Thornton "TKO" and Wheeler goal, but they would not find the back of the net again thanks to the stellar play of Pavelec between the pipes.

With the victory, the Thrashers won their 5th straight on home ice and third in a row over a playoff team from last season. But for the fifth consecutive time, the stingy Czech netminder would not allow more than a single goal to raise his season-to-date save percentage to .949, just shy of the mark set by league leading Tim Thomas of the Bruins who sports a sparkling .951% on the year. Thomas has led the Bruins to 11 wins in 15 starts thanks to his microscopic 1.56 goals against average, but on this nite, "back-up" Tuukka Rask would get his chance to extend his dominance over Atlanta (3 wins and a sub-one GAA in three starts). However, the Thrashers would not take kindly to the thought of getting victimized by a Finnish goalie's exploits once again. Instead, they dominated the neutral zone in the 1st period forcing two key plays that would lead to goals at the other end.

After Kane would help the Thrashers stake their claim to an early lead, Byfuglien, who lost an edge deep in the Bruins' zone on the previous sequence, took control of a pass from Alex Burmistrov through the neutral zone that Big Buff would corral just in time at the blueline to avoid an offsides call. From there, Byfuglien would use his speed and laser-like wrist shot to score through a screen past a helpless Rask. Later in the period, Byfuglien would break up a Marchand rush at the red line to feather a soft pass to a streaking Jimmy Slater at the blueline. Slater, mustachioed in a way that would make a barber shop quartet proud, would skate in on Rask with a D-man dogging him, but his speed and strength would help him shield the puck before chopping it over Rask's stick-arm for the all-important 3-goal lead. The Thrashers would later add an insurance goal by Nicklas Bergfors, who "fooped in" -- Swedish for accidental contact as in "Berg-foops"-- a heeled slap-shot by Byfuglien on the power play late in the 2nd period. Byfuglien would later have a chance at a 5 point night, but his overly fancy stick-handling on a break-in would foil his chance on Rask.

TASTY MORSELS & NUGGETS: Despite getting out-shot for the first time in 6 games, the Thrashers would win the SOG race in the 1st period out-shooting Boston 12 to 10, or 21 to 17 if you include misses and blocked shots....Kane's goal was his 9th of the year, but his brief team lead was neutralized by Big Buff's 9th goal right after Kane got his....In the last 9 games, the Thrashers have completely reversed a goal differential deficit of -9 (not including S/O goals) to now boast a +6 goals scored advantage by scoring 15 more goals than their opponents....Lastly, during the recent 5-game winning streak, the Thrashers have scored a PPG in the last four raising their record to 6 - 0 - 3 when scoring more PPG in a game than their opponent.

THIRD PERIOD -- B's Start Off with a PP

But the Thrashers are up to the task on the penalty kill. Boston really gets nothing started with the man-advantage after Peverley commits an absolutely stupid penalty with a silly hack of Zdeno Chara's stick in the offensive zone. Pavelec makes a very good save after the penalty expires and now the Thrashers are deep in the zone, but dropping back into a trap hybrid D.

-- Zach Bogosian with a strong rush up the right side from the blueline off a pass from Stewie but he can't thread the pass thru the D-man to a waiting Andrew Ladd, who was in position on the doorstep to bang one home.

-- a flurry of action by the Thrashers Greek gods after a Slater F/O win and a Sopel wrister that gets deflected up into the air. The Thrashers batted at the puck and eventually Thorburn got control for a couple of ill-fated wristers into traffic. Much like the Thrashers, the B's do a good job of clogging up the area in front of the crease when there is a scramble. Stewie just misses Eager on a cross-ice feed for a re-direct and the B's have been on their heels after their PP nets not even a shot on goal.

-- huge backcheck by Peverley on a loose puck scramble from in front of his own net saves a potential goal then produces a break-out for a streaking Byfuglien who gets loose for a shot in tight on Rask, but he fumbles the puck trying to go back to his forehand on the F/H, B/H back to F/H deke move. Perhaps a bit too fancy but fun nonetheless!!

-- good forechecking pressure by the Kaner-Litts-Stewie line after Little made a scintillating end to end rush from behind his own net through the neutral zone and to the high circle where he wheeled and tried to thread a tricky pass to a streaking Kane. I reckon Little would have been better off just firing the puck to the cage on the whirling spin move so Kane could crash the cage hard with a full head of speed.

-- another dumb, ill-advised penalty taken by the Thrashers by Ladd, who should know better in this situation. No sense in using your stick extra-aggressively and risk drawing a silly hooking penalty. Thus far, the Thrashers PK unit has been very solid with several clears and denials of the offensive zone at the B/L. Chara to Seidenberg for a drive and rebound but B's can't find the rebound before Peverley, who's been quite good defensively, clears the puck.

-- Pavelec with another great positional save on a hard shot from the left circle by Campbell that ends up tucked away under Pavelec's shoulder. I've been very impressed with Pavelec and his rebound control on point-blank chances and any long shots that he has had a clear line of sight on. If he keeps up this kind of play, the Thrashers will be hard to beat no matter who they play. Make no mistake, the B's haven't been bad, they just haven't capitalized on chances and have had two or three costly breakdowns early that will ultimately cost them this game. 5 mins left.