As the first winter-like Nor-easter roars up the Atlantic seaboard, leaving behind a trail of wind-blown debris and tornado wreckage in north-metro Atlanta, the Atlanta Thrashers fly out of Denver with yet another victory notched in its hockey hip pad. Here in the ATL, sports fans are either buzzing about the exploits of Matt Ryan and the NFC leading 9 - 2 Falcons, or blathering on about the fairness of the NCAA's decision to let Cam Newton play in the SEC Championship game -- I guess even Bulldogs fans can only gripe so long about a season of unrealized expecations. But very few have caught wind of the fact that the resident professional hockey team -- no, the one that plays at Philips Arena downtown! -- has been leaving in its path a wake of destruction of another kind as it blows through win after win over some the NHL's elite teams at the end of November.
Apparently a five-game win streak wasn't enough for this plucky bunch of precocious lads (apologies to the handful of Thrashers who are above the age of 25), who decided to take their show on the road into the Rockies, where they produced an avalanche of a comeback to down a potent Colorado team in dramatic overtime fashion, 3 to 2. Just when you thought the party was over last nite, the boys managed to summon one last burst of sustained energy to overcome both altitude and time-change weariness. Not surprisingly, new Thrashers ring-master, Dustin Byfuglien, initiated the rally late in the 3rd period when his lethal slapshot felled a would-be defender, thus scaring off any further resistance on the part of Colorado's defense. As the sea of defenders parted, and an eclipse by the "planet Antropov" swallowed goalie Peter Budaj whole, "The Buffinator" (courtesy Bill "Rawhide" Tiller of the ajc.com Fan Blog) picked his target carefully and rocket-launched his puck-projectile into the back of the cage to tie the game at two.
But more adversity would come the Thrashers' way before the super-human D-man could finish his mission. Luckily for Byfuglien and the Thrashers, a loyal sidekick by the name of Brent "The SopeStar" Sopel would save the team's collective hide in OT by almost single-handedly thwarting a 59 second 4 on 3 Avalanche power play. Truthfully, I thought the run of good fortune would surely end with Byfuglien's blast, but this team surprised me again with their indomitable courage and determination in the face of adversity. After watching Byfuglien for 25 games in Thrashers blue, I am no longer surprised by his heroics. And the work of Sopel was just the lift Big Buff needed to lead his team to victory again. Only this time he opted for the heavy lifting when he destroyed his target with a crunching check against the boards, leaving behind the puck for a hard-charging Anthony Stewart to scoop up and eventually slip through the wickets of Budaj on a "failed" wrap-around pass attempt. Game. Set. Hero.
While the Thrashers didn't play their best hockey last nite in Colorado, they did something even more impressive: win on the road against a very good team when the mountain seemed way too steep to climb. Such a win is just the kind of validation a fan and blogger like me was hoping for as I try to convince myself, and the reader, that the Thrashers are for real. But why is this different than last year when the bottom quickly fell out of a season that started with such promise and hope (see my previous article about tempering expectations as a traumatized fan of an abusive team)? Before I break out a boat load of statistical evidence as to why this team might be (okay, they ARE, I wrote it!) for real, keep in mind that stats only illustrate the underlying paradigm shift that has occurred in Atlanta. Now that it has taken hold, the stats seem even more impressive than the actual turn-around that has occurred on the ice and in the players' collective confidence.
Most notably, the Thrashers have gone from being the most porous defensive team in the league -- next to Edmonton -- to one of the stingiest. Starting out the season, Atlanta struggled to execute Coach Craig Ramsay's unfamiliar system and the players, who were plagued by chronic brain-freeze turnovers, struggled to react instinctively on the ice. Resultingly, they were gouged for a total of 54 goals (less shootout "goals") in 15 games. Luckily, the Thrashers were scoring goals in bunches as well, denting the twine 45 times themselves. But more alarming was the number of shots they were giving up and the large disparity between shots allowed and shots taken.
Apparently a five-game win streak wasn't enough for this plucky bunch of precocious lads (apologies to the handful of Thrashers who are above the age of 25), who decided to take their show on the road into the Rockies, where they produced an avalanche of a comeback to down a potent Colorado team in dramatic overtime fashion, 3 to 2. Just when you thought the party was over last nite, the boys managed to summon one last burst of sustained energy to overcome both altitude and time-change weariness. Not surprisingly, new Thrashers ring-master, Dustin Byfuglien, initiated the rally late in the 3rd period when his lethal slapshot felled a would-be defender, thus scaring off any further resistance on the part of Colorado's defense. As the sea of defenders parted, and an eclipse by the "planet Antropov" swallowed goalie Peter Budaj whole, "The Buffinator" (courtesy Bill "Rawhide" Tiller of the ajc.com Fan Blog) picked his target carefully and rocket-launched his puck-projectile into the back of the cage to tie the game at two.
But more adversity would come the Thrashers' way before the super-human D-man could finish his mission. Luckily for Byfuglien and the Thrashers, a loyal sidekick by the name of Brent "The SopeStar" Sopel would save the team's collective hide in OT by almost single-handedly thwarting a 59 second 4 on 3 Avalanche power play. Truthfully, I thought the run of good fortune would surely end with Byfuglien's blast, but this team surprised me again with their indomitable courage and determination in the face of adversity. After watching Byfuglien for 25 games in Thrashers blue, I am no longer surprised by his heroics. And the work of Sopel was just the lift Big Buff needed to lead his team to victory again. Only this time he opted for the heavy lifting when he destroyed his target with a crunching check against the boards, leaving behind the puck for a hard-charging Anthony Stewart to scoop up and eventually slip through the wickets of Budaj on a "failed" wrap-around pass attempt. Game. Set. Hero.
While the Thrashers didn't play their best hockey last nite in Colorado, they did something even more impressive: win on the road against a very good team when the mountain seemed way too steep to climb. Such a win is just the kind of validation a fan and blogger like me was hoping for as I try to convince myself, and the reader, that the Thrashers are for real. But why is this different than last year when the bottom quickly fell out of a season that started with such promise and hope (see my previous article about tempering expectations as a traumatized fan of an abusive team)? Before I break out a boat load of statistical evidence as to why this team might be (okay, they ARE, I wrote it!) for real, keep in mind that stats only illustrate the underlying paradigm shift that has occurred in Atlanta. Now that it has taken hold, the stats seem even more impressive than the actual turn-around that has occurred on the ice and in the players' collective confidence.
Most notably, the Thrashers have gone from being the most porous defensive team in the league -- next to Edmonton -- to one of the stingiest. Starting out the season, Atlanta struggled to execute Coach Craig Ramsay's unfamiliar system and the players, who were plagued by chronic brain-freeze turnovers, struggled to react instinctively on the ice. Resultingly, they were gouged for a total of 54 goals (less shootout "goals") in 15 games. Luckily, the Thrashers were scoring goals in bunches as well, denting the twine 45 times themselves. But more alarming was the number of shots they were giving up and the large disparity between shots allowed and shots taken.
The Thrashers were failing miserably at their attempt to play an aggressive, puck-control game as evidenced by their Corsi stats through the first 15 games. By the time the Senators finished their full and complete domination of the Thrash in Ottawa, the total shots disparity had reached a jaw-dropping minus-245!! Averaged out over the course of 15 games, that is A LOT OF FREAKIN' SHOTS!! Not only were the Thrashers giving up too many shots on goal (37.2 thru 15 gms), but they were getting out-hustled, out-worked and out-classed on several nites. Simply put, the Thrashers were lucky to be a .500 team after 15 games; they showed glimpses and teased you with good stretches, but chronic breakdowns and lapses lead to fitful results and an explosion of pessimism within the fan-base.
Slowly but surely, the Thrashers started to show signs that things were finally starting to click. First was a dominant first period against the visiting Minnesota Wild and a surprising 5 to 1 win. Then there were close-calls in the form of hard-fought, resilient efforts, albeit losing efforts, against Pittsburgh and Washington. Then came the seminal moment of perhaps the entire rest of the season. The Thrashers flat gave up in the 2nd period against Florida on home ice. Despite a tongue lashing and a heated exchange amongst players during the intermission, the result couldn't be salvaged in the 3rd despite the 18 shots thrown at Tomas Vokoun. The boys went down swinging in a 2 to 1 loss, but then used that failed 2nd period as a heartfelt, motivational wake-up call. Since then, the Thrashers have gone on an absolute tear winning 6 straight, but doing so in eyebrow-raising, convincing fashion. Twenty-two goals scored to only five allowed. But it's more than just hot scoring and even hotter goaltending. The system started working on all cylinders and the Thrashers started using the system to work their opponents into stunned submission.
Over the recent winning stretch, the Thrashers have outshot their opponents by 25 shots on the SOG clock. Over the last ten games, they have 30 more SOG. The Corsi rating disparity has stopped growing and the Thrashers have actually attempted 12 more shots than their opponents over the last 10 games starting with Minnesota. Through their first 15 games (and 49 periods), the Thrashers only managed to outshoot their opponent by more than 3 shots in nine out of 49 frames! Their opponents registered more than a 3-SOG advantage in 23 of those 49 periods by comparison. Since then, the shot-counts have been a lot more even and, when adjusted for power play and short-handed time, the overall SOG margin is a plus-40 for the Thrashers in the last 10 games.
So while Ondrej Pavelec has been absolutely sensational during this stretch, the results on the ice are as much a product of the collective team defensive effort and a greater committment to the execution of the system on both ends of the ice. Your opponent can't score on you as easily if they don't have the puck in your end as much, and that is precisely why the Thrashers are winning. They are asserting early control of the game's tempo and imposing their will in the first period, often scoring the first goal and building on it. Their play at even strength has been nothing short of remarkable recently as they have scored 15 more ES goals (not counting empty netters) than their opponents. And it certainly helps that they have only given up an average of 31.6 SOG over this period compared to the 37.6 they were surrendering earlier in the season.
The recent turn-around really has been astounding, but can be traced back to a point before the captain's hat was awarded to Andrew Ladd. Yes, Ladd is 6 - 0 so far with the 'C' on his chest -- and Byfuglien's 'A' might as well be an 'S' -- but the changes started to take root before that decision by Ramsay. Even though they were blitzed for 5 goals by Ottawa, there were signs that things were starting to change. The boys put 37 evenly distributed shots on net in that game, but poor goaltending on their own end is what hurt them more than any semblance of poor effort. Of course, there are several more reasons for this sudden turn for the better, both tangible and intangible, but I'll let you provide those reasons in the comments section below. So assuming I haven't put you to sleep with my mind-numbing shower of statistics, go ahead and tell me why you think this team is, or isn't for real! But I'm warning you, "The Buffinator" might take issue with you should your offer your opinion in a less than flattering manner.
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