As recent as Monday,
Craig Custance reported that
GM Rick Dudley "touched base" with
Lee Stempniak's agent in an effort to gauge his client's contract hopes / expectations / demands. Esteemed
ajc.com blogger -- and friend of this blog -- submitted
a salient piece on Tuesday evening about the possibility of bringing in a player of Stempniak's caliber to address the Thrashers' seeming lack of proven scoring punch in their top six. However, this blogger is more inclined to wonder if it would make more sense to go after a pending RFA like
Peter Mueller,
James Neal or even
Andrew Cogliano to solidify the line-up for years to come.
Obviously, the most coveted of yet-to-sign RFA's would have to be stud winger and Olympian Bobby Ryan, whose contract negotiations have sputtered and stalled due to a disagreement over the term of his new deal. Ryan would prefer a 3-year deal (perhaps because he would be arbitration-eligible at the end of 3 years) over the Ducks' offer of a 5-year deal. The Ducks' GM Bryan Murray has said repeatedly on record that he is committed to signing Ryan no matter what, even if some other GM were to swoop in and offer him mad bank. Money does not seem to be the issue in that situation, so I doubt any GM would be willing to even try to pry him loose. Plus, paying Ryan in upwards of $6 M per year in addition to forking over four draft picks (2 1st rounders plus a 2nd & 3rd) isn't really palatable for any team.
So that brings us to the likes of Mueller, Cogliano, Neal or Sam Gagner, perhaps even Martin Hanzal, who could become such a target if the cash-strapped Coyotes blink first and over-commit big dollars to Lee Stempniak and/or Mueller before getting around to Hanzal. See, it is rather unusual for this many RFA's to be waiting for contracts this late into the off-season. It is nearly September and training camps are right over the horizon. While there may be a flurry of RFA signing activity in the weeks to come, the fact that so many players have yet to sign may make them personally more amenable to a sweet offer from another team. Especially if their current team may be limited financially in what it can provide that player for even a 3-year commitment.
That's why the idea of slapping an offer sheet on the likes of Peter Mueller or James Neal is so intriguing. Both Phoenix and Dallas have financial issues that may preclude them from matching a reasonable offer. With strict internal budgets in place, those teams are in very tenuous positions already and have limited recourse for matching a solid offer. And to be honest, some of those teams may prefer to stock their drafting quivers with a few bows to use in the upcoming 2011 draft. On top of that, the Thrashers seem poised to make some noise this year regardless of whether they bring in additional talent for the upcoming season. Lastly, Rick Dudley knows (or at least thinks he knows) that he may end up drafting in the middle of the pack next spring and that may be reason enough for him to roll the dice on a player like Neal or Mueller at the cost of a couple of picks in the next draft.
So, just what is the price of "claiming" a player like Mueller or Neal? Well it depends on the player's current forecasted salary range. Neal might be the most logical from the standpoint of what Dallas can afford to pay. And considering Neal only made $822 K last season, his new salary range is probably still hovering around $3.0 - $3.5 M per season. If Atlanta were to offer slightly more than $3.5 M per year, which is probably what it would take to pry him loose, the Thrashers would have to give up 2 draft picks: a 1st and a 3rd rounder in 2011.
That doesn't seem too steep when you've already drafted cornerstone pieces Evander Kane and Zach Bogosian in the early rounds the last two years. For a player of Mueller's potential -- although his concussion history is making him less attractive -- and ability, the Thrashers might have to ante-up closer to $4.0 - $4.64 M, which is the upper limit threshold on additional draft pick compensation. At $4.65 M and higher, the Thrashers would then have to give up all 3 of their top selections at next year's draft.
But is that too steep a price to pay? For a player like Mueller, perhaps. But for a player like James Neal, who has averaged over 25 goals in each of his first two seasons, a large contract offer to him might make a lot of sense. At 6' 2", 210 lbs, he is the type of net-crashing LW the Thrashers covet. While Evander Kane is cut from the same mold, the idea of having a player like Neal to augment the Thrashers' top six is quite attractive. And considering the fact that two or three recent draftees -- Patrice Cormier, Arturs Kulda, Spencer Machacek, Carl Klingberg and Paul Postma should all be in the mix for rosters spots over the next 2 years -- stand to crack the Thrashers' line-up this year, why not risk 2 or 3 picks next year for a more proven goal scorer with upside?
In addition to James Neal, a player like Chris Stewart, who broke out last year with a suprising 28 goals for Colorado, might be ripe for the picking since Colorado is another financially constrained team reluctant to spend big money on Stewart when they know how expensive it will be to lock up Duchene, Mueller, Galiardi and Cumiskey in the next several years. Of course, some may argue that Atlanta is no different as a team in a struggling market with unstable ownership who may not be able to match a counter-offer on a player like Nicklas Bergfors. However, the Atlanta Spirit Group does not have any debt to worry about and, assuming they can find additional investors to boost the capital influx, the idea of eventually spending in upwards of $55 M per season and pushing closer to max cap may not be that farfetched.
But I'll let you the reader make the call after perusing this brief summary of the numbers put up by the above-mentioned players during their short tenures in the NHL:
(C) P. Mueller......($1.7 M) - 48 G & 79 A (222 games); .57 PPG avg
(C) S. Gagner.......($1.63 M) - 44 G & 87 A (223 gms); .59 PPG avg
(C) A. Cogliano.....($1.13 M) - 46 G & 65 A (246 gms); .45 PPG avg
(C) M. Hanzal.......($980 K) - 30 G & 69 A (227 gms); .44 PPG avg
(W) C. Stewart.....($850 K) - 39 G & 44 A (130 gms); .64 PPG avg
(W) J. Neal..........($822 K) - 51 G & 41 A (155 gms); .59 PPG avg
