Can Freddy Modin be THAT Guy?

You know, the guy Duds was talking about. That guy our general manager, Rick Dudley, told us he was thinking about signing when pressed about the issue of replacing all the goals scored by once-upon-a-time Russians. You know, that guy. That guy who is capable of scoring somewhere in the realm of 15-25 goals all the while providing veteran leadership on the ice, along the bench and in the clubhouse room? Yeah, THAAAT guy.

Thrashers fans everywhere are debating -- and in some cases chastising -- the Labor Day move by Dudley to bring in the venerable Swede to bolster the team's offensive corps, which still appears to be a bit short on scoring. The burning question right now is: "can the big guy still bring it?" After 3 fitful -- and for Fredrik Modin, extremely frustrating -- seasons of intermittent injuries and rehab therapy, can "Freddy Mo" still produce?

Looking back on Modin's career, there was a time when the 6' 4", 220 lbs of strong-skating Swede was on the verge of becoming a pre-eminent power forward in the NHL. During the most productive stretch of his career -- a 7-year period between 1999 and 2007 -- Modin scored 167 goals or an average of nearly 24 per season. During that span he appeared in 445 games, playing in at least 76 games every season save for one (2001-'02), which coincidentally was his lowest year of output (.38 PPG) since his rookie season in 1996-'97.

While Modin has experienced some highs and lows -- a high of 31 goals in 2005-'06 and a low of 14 goals in 2001-'02 -- he has been fairly consistent in his rate of production for those 7 years. Other than the injury-marred season of 2001-'02, his points per game rate never dipped below .526 during that period. He even posted a PPG rate of .60 or better in 4 of those 7 years. And it is no coincidence that his four highest goal-scoring seasons were those same 4 years of .60 or better PPG production.

Unfortunately, age and injuries caught up with the left-winger and slowed his production to that of a 4th line grinder. In mid-October of 2007, shortly after his 33rd birthday, Modin suffered his first in a rash of injuries that ruined his year. First it was a groin pull and then a recurring series of back spasms sidelined him for 2.5 months and 35 missed games. When he came back from the bad back, he then experienced nagging hamstring and groin issues (as well as the flu!) that kept him out of another 10 games. All in all, he missed 59 games in that lost year.

In the subsequent season (2008-'09), Modin had a difficult time finding any semblance of consistency. Despite a relatively healthy start, Modin could only manage to produce 2 goals and 7 assists (with a -9) in his first 17 games played. He briefly caught fire in early December scoring 5 goals in 7 games played. But he quickly cooled, suffering this time back-to-back goal-less streaks of 8 and 13 games during a long winter of futility. After that, the injury bug bit him again as a knee-injury cost him 25 more games between 2/16/09 and the end of the season.

Needless to say, the 2009-'10 season was one to forget even though he managed to play in 44 contests split between Columbus and playoff-bound Los Angeles. He saw his ice-time reduced significantly though as he logged mostly 3rd line minutes for both teams. After averaging close to 17 minutes per game in the previous two seasons, he only played about 14:45 minutes per game last year. Thusly, Modin never hit stride and potted only 5 goals total for the season. However, he flashed a glimpse of his former self during the playoffs when he banged home 3 goals in six contests against Vancouver.

Apparently that was enough evidence to convince Rick Dudley that Mr. Modin had something left in the proverbial gas tank. But is that tank even half full? If so, Freddy might be able to post 10-15 goals playing moderate -- heavy on occasion -- 3rd line minutes as well as 2nd unit power play duty. For his career, 46 of his 225 goals are on the PP (20.4%), including 6 in the last 3 injury-plagued campaigns. Prior to that, 23 of his 82 (28.0%) goals came with the man advantage. Make no mistake, Modin is a closer. He seals the deal on the PP using his unique blend of size, skill and deft touch. If healthy, Modin can most certainly provide a lift to a Thrashers PP that struggled mightily after the departure of Ilya Kovalchuk.

A LOOK AT MODIN, BY THE NUMBERS:

Cup Year: 57 pts in 82 gms (29 goals - 5 PP) / .695 PPG / 14.1 shooting %

'05-2006: 54 pts in 77 gms (31 goals - 12 PP) / .701 PPG / 14.0 shooting %

'06-2007: 42 pts in 79 gms (22 goals - 6 PP) / .562 PPG / 10.0 shooting %

'07-2008: 12 pts in 23 games (6 goals - 2 PP) / .523 PPG / 14.6 shooting %

'08-2009: 25 pts in 50 games (9 goals - 2 PP) / .500 PPG / 8.0 shooting %

'09-2010: 11 pts in 44 games (5 goals - 2 PP) / .250 PPG / 7.5 shooting %

HOW HE DO IT? MODIN'S METHOD - LAST 40 GOALS:

Medium / long-range slapper from top of circle or just inside - 2 of 40 (5%)

Open ice breakaway or hard drive to net in transition - 4 of 40 (10%)

Rebound put-back or loose change deposit at goalmouth - 12 of 40 (30%)

Re-directed shot on PP or tap-in / re-directed pass - 8 of 40 (20%)

Wrister or 1-timer in slot, at bottom or below the circle - 11 of 40 (27.5%)

Wrister or 1-timer at face-off dot or above / at top of circle - 3 of 40 (7.5%)

The sample size of my "study" is large enough to begin to understand how Modin operates. 50-60% of his goals come from in tight, at the crease or in the slot off a quick feed. He still has very good hands and cannot be knocked off a loose puck easily. Give him the puck in the right place at the bottom of the circle or in the slot and he'll score it. He has a cannon of a shot, but his snap-shot is even more lethal than his slapper. And finally, his long reach helps him get to loose pucks that D-men cannot handle easily.

Assuming his legs and groin are healed, Modin may very well be capable of cracking the 15-20 goal plateau playing in a system -- one with which he should be familiar from his time with Coach Ramsay in Tampa -- that should be a bit more offense-friendly than the one he didn't much enjoy in Columbus. I can certainly understand the bewilderment and puzzled disbelief this UFA signing has caused, but should the soon-to-be 36 year-old manage to stay healthy, I don't see why Freddy Modin can't resurrect his career, which deserves a better ending by the way, here in the city of Atlanta -- a city that once raised itself up from fiery, smoky ruins. Hopefully for the citizens of Blueland, Freddy Modin doesn't go down in flames.