A Day Late, But Not Short on Statistical Data

Okay, now that we've had a day to ruminate about and recover from last nite's galling 2 to 1 defeat at the hands of the Marty Reasoner Sex Panthas, it's time to move on and take stock of where things stand -- mind you, I was going to do this every 9th game, but alas, I actually let work get in the way of a blog entry yesterday!! Back in late October, I posted an entry comparing the first 8 games of the 2008-09 season (since it was John Anderson's first stab) with the first 8 games of the Craig Ramsay era. I feel that, while it may not have any real relevance in predicting whether this Thrashers team will amount to anything special, it is, at the very least, a mildly thought-provoking exercise. And furthermore, I can incorporate an additional comparison to the 2009-10 season as a provocative tool by which statistics help to further illustrate the short-comings of a team that put too much emphasis on a superstar sniper. But do the numbers back me up?

First things first, we revisit the earlier comparison chart showing how the first 8 games -- if you recall, I used 8 games for convenience's sake since there was a 3-day gap between games 8 and 9 with nothing else to write about -- of this season compared to the Coach Anderson Reign of Comedy. Unfortunately, my metrics, no matter how hard I crunch the numbers, cannot capture the effect of lucky "bounces", but just remember, according to Anderson, it was usually just a "bounce here or there" that would make the difference, give or take! But enough of the tongue in cheek sarcasm, on to the numbers!!

STAT Category _________ 2010-'11 Season _______ 2008-'09 Season

Record thru 8 Gms ________ 3 -- 4 -- 1 OTL __________ 2 -- 4 -- 2 OTL

Goal Differential _______ (-6, 23 GF vs 29 GA) _______ (-4, 23 GF vs 27 GA)

SOG Differential _________ (-67, 234 vs 301) _________ (-40, 250 vs 290)

Average Shot Diff. ________ (-8.1, 29.3 v 37.4) ________ (-5.0, 31.3 vs. 36.3)

# Times Out-shot ________ (7 times , even 1x) ________ (7 times, even 1x)

Shooting Perctge. ________ 9.40% (on 22 goals) _______ 8.80% (on 22 goals)

Save Percentage ________ .910 (adj for 2 ENGA) ______ .910 (adj for 1 ENGA)

Now that you've been refreshed with the old data, here are the numbers after the second set of 9 games, or if you prefer, through the first 18 games:

STAT Category ________ 2010-'11 Season ________ 2008-'09 Season

Record thru 18 Gms _______ 7 -- 8 -- 3 OTL __________ 7 -- 9 -- 2 OTL

Goal Differential _______ (-10, 57 GF vs 67 GA) _______ (-11, 53 GF vs 64 GA)

SOG Differential _________ (-126, 526 vs 652) _________ (-86, 509 vs 595)

Average Shot Diff. ________ (-7.0, 29.2 v 36.2) ________ (-4.8, 28.3 vs. 33.1)

# Times Out-shot ________ (14 times , even 1x) _______ (14 times, even 3x)

Shooting Perctge.*_______ 10.6% (on 56 goals) _______ 10.2% (on 52 goals)

*percentage is figured on goals scored in regulation or O.T., but excludes S.O. "goals"

Save Percentage ________ .907 (adj for 5 ENGA)______ .894 (adj for 1 ENGA)

As you can see, just like the last time we looked at this comparison of seasons, the similarities are quite striking. Especially when it comes to four things: W-L record, goal differential, large shot disparities (although it's a bit alarming to see that Anderson's first team was much better at limiting shots!), and oddly enough, shot percentages! I don't have time to go back and delve into the reasons why the team gave up fewer shots in 2008, but it might have had something to do with the presence and leadership of Nic Havelid on the blueline. Plus, Ron Hainsey played pretty well out of the gate in his first couple of months with the Thrashers after signing as a UFA earlier that summer. But beyond that, the most telling statistic is the very mediocre save percentage as Kari Lehtonen went down on account of poor conditioning, Ondrej Pavelec was too raw as a rookie call-up and "Moose" Hedberg was counted on for his savvy, but unsensational net-minding. However, the team did circle the wagons after a 6-game losing streak, one in which they yielded an eye-opening 29 goals, before reeling off 5 straight wins behind a red hot Little White Russian line and the clutch play of the venerable Hedberg.

What is more interesting I think are some of the similarities between this current year's team and the team led by Ilya Kovalchuk last fall -- Kovy certainly was blazing hot out of the chute last year and scored a bushel of goals before his foot injury. While he was on the mend, the team managed to hold things together fairly well in his absence, and then they exploded again upon his return with 3 straight wins and an exciting OTL to the Boston Bruins -- I should cue the Maxim Afinogenov heroics video, but it's too painful thinking about what could have been -- to raise their record to an impressive 10 - 6 - 2 after 18 games. Here are the rest of the comparison stats for you to digest and think about:

STAT Category ________ 2010-'11 Season ________ 2009-'10 Season

Record thru 18 Gms _______ 7 -- 8 -- 3 OTL _________ 10 -- 6 -- 2 OTL

Goal Differential _______ (-10, 57 GF v 67 GA) _______ (+12, 66 GF v 54 GA)

SOG Differential ________ (-126, 526 vs 652) _________ (-120, 514 vs 634)

Average Shot Diff. _______ (-7.00, 29.2 v 36.2) _______ (-6.67, 28.6 vs. 35.2)

# Times Out-shot _______ (14 times , even 1x) _______ (14 times, even none)

Shooting Perctge.*_______ 10.6% (on 56 goals) _______ 12.6% (on 65 goals)

*percentage is figured on goals scored in regulation or O.T., but excludes S.O. "goals"

Save Percentage ________ .907 (adj for 5 ENGA)______ .920 (adj for 1 ENGA)

Perhaps the spookiest stat nugget of this whole exercise is the eerie similarity in the average shot differential between this year and last, with two completely different coaches and, ostensibly, systems. Of course, those that follow the team closely realize that Ramsay's system isn't that much different from Anderson's in terms of how aggressive the offense is supposed to play. The biggest difference is the fact we have an even more dynamic threat from the back-end by the name of "Big Dusty Buff", who has meshed extremely well with his sidekick Enstrom and has thrived in his return to the blueline. The other nuance that is most different this year is the emphasis by Ramsay on not only rolling 4 lines consistently, but also in how they attack the offensive zone.

Ramsay's system puts the spotlight on getting the puck deep, keeping it there and cycling it till the defense pukes, where as Anderson liked to use his speedy skill guys in transition to set each other up by making fancy plays at the offensive blueline and hoping to find the 3rd man high unaccounted for by the D. Unfortunately, as we learned, Anderson's system was easily shut-down with a trapping, clogging neutral zone emphasis by the other team that would disrupt the transitional, and all too often horizontal play. Ramsay is all about moving north and south and tilting the ice as much as possible to keep the heat on the other team. In a simple sense, it's all about a good defense through a tenacious offense. But changing the mental habits that were formed during two years of Anderson's tutelage has proven much harder to do so far this season. Or is it that there aren't enough players on the roster who truly believe in themselves to raise their game to a level never imagined under Anderson?

Either way, the good news is that, in spite of the current 7-game skid in which they have only earned 3 points out of a possible 14, the team is starting to find a more consistent and higher level of play night in and night out. To wit, the Thrashers have finally started to out-shoot their opponents more often than not, doing so 4 times in the last 6 games. However, they have only won 1 of those 6 games in regulation. The most obvious reason -- in addition to the mental lapses and brain-farts that are still plaguing the Thrashers -- they are struggling to win games is because they are finding it harder to tickle the twine with the same rate of success as they had early on.

In their first 10 games, they were scoring at a rate of 11.3%, but in the most recent 8 games, that scoring rate has plunged to a pedestrian 8.6%. That 2.7% difference translates into roughly 1 fewer goal per contest when averaging around 32-33 SOG per game. Not so coincidentally, that one goal is exactly what they needed in the 3rd period last nite to extract some shred of a positive reward for their better play (overall) of late. When the net starts to shrink because you consistently allow defensive breakdowns to heap additional pressure on the offense to score, then you're only hope is that your goaltender bails you out. But as we've seen with Chris Mason's horrendous play recently, you're goalie may breakdown too as a result of getting overworked. Three times poor goaltending has cost them and the other three times it was the untimely gaffe or turnover that was the difference in a tight game. If the screws aren't finally tightened with some pressing urgency (now especially with the naming of a captain, see below) in the next 5 games, we could find ourselves talking about what prospect we hope to get at the 2011 spring entry draft come early December. And that would be the ultimate insult to the few remaining hopeful fans of Thrasherville.