Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Hope all of you have had a safe, peaceful and, of course, tasty day of delicious food with family and friends. And now that everyone is sufficiently stuffed with turkey and enjoying late afternoon, tryptophan-induced hallucinations of hat-tricks, miraculous saves and a deep, satisfying run into the Stanley Cup Playoffs, let me bestow unto you a delectable dessert to devour with your eyes and mind.
As a scrumptious, belly-filling chaser to the glorious main course that was the Thrashers 2 - 0 Thanksgiving Eve dismantling of the 2009 Western Conference Champion Detroit Red Wings, I give unto you my own personal quarter-season review of the Atlanta Thrashers in the form of the the "Ham-tastic", the "Medi-okra" and the down-right "Cran-cid-berry". Who's still hungry? Uh, make that "who's still awake??"
THE HAMTASTIC:
Goaltending - As if a shutout on Friday the 13th against the Kings wasn't enough, our baby-faced netminder from the Czech Republic, Ondrej Pavelec gave us all an early holiday treat to savor with the second shutout gem of his young career. Which provides the perfect introduction to my first "ham-tastic" point of this blog entry. 
After Pavelec's sensational, 40-save effort last night, the tandem of Ondrej the Giant and Johan "Moose" Hedberg now sports a sterling save percentage of 92.1%, which is second only to the notoriously stingy New Jersey Devils goaltending led by some French Canadian guy by the name of Brodeur. What's even more impressive is the fact that the Thrashers give up a league worst 35.6 shots per game, which will be featured below in a category that you can surely guess. Anyway, if anyone had told you that the Thrashers would sport the 2nd best save percentage in the league at the quarter-pole, you would have thought they were certifiable for sure. (Photo Courtesy: Kevin Cox, Getty Images)
Goal Differential - While the Thrashers have the highest incidence of shots allowed in the entire league, that statistical reality is belied by the following anomaly: a positive goal differential of +13!! Believe it or not, your Atlanta Thrashers are third in the East behind only Philly (+15) and division-rival Washington (+14) as of the time of this writing. Quite a nice change from our not-so-nifty goal deficiency of -11 after the first 20 games last season. At this point in time, I'm still not completely convinced this isn't a mirage of sorts just a quarter of the way in, but our stellar goaltending, surely impacted in a positive fashion by better team D and a much improved Penalty Kill unit, is slowly making me a believer.
Special Teams (especially Penalty Kill) - Perhaps the most reaffirming evidence of an improved, playoff-caliber team is the Thrasher's re-tooled and more effective penalty killing unit. Led by the indefatiguable Marty Reasoner and the exuberant and quick Evander Kane, the Thrashers have risen from the depths of P.K. futility to the heights of the NHL Special Teams' high-rent district with a fifth-best 83.3 % efficiency rate. Most impressive might have been the team's second penalty-kill effort against the Red Wings in which the unit of Reasoner, Chris Thorburn, Ron Hainsey, Christoph Schubert and of course Pavelec, fought and scrapped for the entire 2 minute sequence to keep the puck out of their net. And doing so for over a minute's time without the benefit of a full complement of sticks -- Pavelec lost his goal-stick and had to resort to using Reasoner's blade while Marty went diving and sliding in front of would-be slapshots --was nothing short of remarkable. A truly heroic, if not heart-stopping effort by the quintet.
Emergence of Rick Peverley - The story of Rick, "don't call me Rich", Peverley has been well-documented in many media outlets over the last few weeks. And the praise being heaped upon the man known widely throughout Thrasherville as the "Pevs Dispenser" has been well- deserved as Pevs still leads the team in scoring with 8 goals, 16 savvy assists and 24 points in just 21 games. So to this point, if my math is correct, Mr. Peverley has maintained a point per game pace for 60 games now. Okay, so he's a shade below a PPG now with ONLY 59 points in those 60 games. Most impressive is the fact Dicky Pevs has been able to maintain his production no matter what line he's been asked to bolster with his presence. While he's been most effective playing with young Kane and road-roomie Colby Armstrong, Peverley has managed to find scoring success no matter what line permutation John Anderson can conjure up.
Also Ham-tastic Worthy: Evander Kane's defensive presence has been quite remarkable despite his inexperience, which is a nice bonus on top of his impressive scoring prowess (7 G, 12 pts & a +7) as an 18 y/o rookie; Pavel Kubina has been a welcome addition to the blueline as his size and skill have buoyed a defensive unit that has now recorded a stunning 19 goals thanks to Anderson's razzle-dazzle system; the Power Play success rate has been very good at 23.5% and despite a recent slump of sorts (only 2 goals in the last 16 attempts) is still rated in the Top 5 of the entire NHL; Mother Russia's (apologies to Kazakhstan) sons have gelled nicely to form a line as formidable as the ones iced by the Soviet Red Army at the pinnacle of Cold War hockey glory with both Nik Antropov and Maxim Afinogenov maximizing the ASG's bang-for-buck-spent by racking up 42 points in just 21 games (21 points each which makes Mad Max's resurgence worthy of his own blog very soon).
THE MEDIOKRA:
Home Record - Ugggh, yes...the most maddening "statistic" of all is the team's less than acceptable home record of only 4 wins - 5 losses - 2 OT or S/O losses. What is even more galling is the fact that all 5 regulation losses have come by only one goal. This is particularly disheartening because most of the damage has been self-inflicted with lethargic 1st period starts, lackadaisical play and eye-popping turn-overs resulting from poor concentration. Anyone who follows this team knows they possess the talent and skill to play better at home as a 7 - 2 - 1 road record is far from a fluke. If this team is truly playoff-caliber, then this is an issue that must be rectified immediately as the schedule-makers were unkind to the Thrashers in December with only 5 home games and 10 road games.
Lack of Scoring Depth - On the surface, with four PPG players (Kovy, Pevs, Nik & Max) and a bevy of high-scoring D-men, it would appear as though the Thrashers do not have any issues with scoring as evidenced by their robust, league-leading 3.38 goals per game avg. However, 77% of the scoring from their 12 forwards comes from just 4 players. And if it weren't for the efforts of stud-in-training Evander Kane, that percentage would be even higher. Bryan Little (2 goals), Slava Kozlov (3 goals), Armstrong (2 goals) and Reasoner (0 goals) all need to find a more consistent scoring touch soon to help the team weather the scoring draughts that will surely hamper our top scorers in the coming months. If they don't, the Thrashers will be hard-pressed to maintain that stellar 3.4 goals per game scoring average.
AND FINALLY...THE CRANCIDBERRY!
Shots Allowed & Brutal Schedule - Every good team, even Stanley Cup Champions, have some kind of flaw or weakness that need to be addressed for that team to take the necessary steps towards becoming a truly formidable opponent on the ice. For the 2009-10 Atlanta Thrashers, that weakness happens to be the scariest one of all: shots allowed. One by-product of their more exciting and aggressive style of play is the inherent risk involved. By taking more chances to produce offense, a team will inevitably give up some juicy Grade-A chances during the course of a game. Luckily for the Thrashers, the overall team defense (clearing pucks, moving bodies etc.) and fantastic goaltending have limited the potential damage.
As mentioned above, Atlanta gives up a gaudy 35.6 shots per game, worst in the NHL. On top of this, the team's shot differential has widened to an alarming -6.9, its biggest gulf yet under the tutelage of John Anderson. To paint the picture a bit more dramatically, imagine that this trend were to continue over the course of the entire season. Over 82 games, the Thrashers would yield an absurd 2,920 shots on goal. Chances are, over the span of the season, the goalies will not be able to maintain such high save % (currently north of 92%). Even at a very respectable .910 for the whole season, the team will end up yielding 262 goals. If you subtract out the 61 goals (including shootout gimmick goals) already allowed, that means the Birds will give up 201 goals over the remaining 61 games or a sobering 3.29 GAA!!
No matter how good your offense is, it is damn near impossible to outscore your opponents by a score of 4 to 3 almost 60% of the time. This is an issue that MUST be corrected soon as the Thrashers' schedule gets increasingly difficult in the month of December. With 22 of 36 games on the road starting December 1st, the Thrashers risk wearing down to the point of surrendering too many goals on a regular basis. Sure their road record has been great thus far, but the amount of time they spend on the road will certainly take its toll eventually. Thus, it will be important for JA's team to find that special balance of dynamic, risk-taking offense and solid, two-way team play that can limit the shots allowed to a number closer to 30 and, in the process, take a bit of the pressure off the goaltending duo of Pavs and Moose.
To this point, the Thrashers have played well enough to position themselves for a strong run to the playoffs, but there is cause for concern despite the wealth of positive statistical support. The biggest weakness is a potentially dangerous one that could deal a serious blow to the Thrashers' prospects for success this season if not corrected soon. One thing that John Anderson and his staff has shown thus far is that they are more than capable of making the necessary in-game adjustments to either mount a comeback after getting down early or protect a lead that they've achieved and kept through 20 minutes of play (Atlanta is 7 - 0 - 0 leading after 1 period). If Coach Anderson can figure out the requisite IN-SEASON adjustments to sure up their sometimes shaky team defense and shrink that miserable shot deficit, the Thrashers may just find themselves battling for a playoff seed rather than playing for pride in a another season lost.
5 comments:
Great stuff. Thanks.
How do you fix the shots on goal issue?
Isn't the s/o/g number is a function of two things? How quickly you clear your own zone and how long you keep it in the offensive zone. Thus the problem has as much to do with the offense as the defense. No?
Or in the case of the Thrashers is it something that we will have to live with because of the quick strike nature of our best lines?
Otey
Bob, thanks for stopping by the blog and posting your comments. You make very keen observations w/r/t the team's difficulty in clearing the D-zone and maintaining puck possession in the O-zone. As you know there are never any "easy" solutions, but I think we struggle most when our forwards stand around too much and don't move their feet to get to loose pucks or carry the puck to a place that may be safer to make a pass.
Indeed, the offense can be just as much to blame as the defense and perhaps more so in this case as the system is dependent upon the forwards supporting the D and everyone moving as a 5-man unit up and down the ice to ensure gap control and minimize breakdowns that lead to odd-man rushes. Also, they seem to be failing to recognize counter-strategy that takes away the center of the ice and rather than carry the puck to the outside into the O-zone, we are forcing silly passes that get picked off easily.
While we indeed thrive with a "quick strike nature", I still think there is room for compromise and there is no reason why all of our lines can't utilize some degree of dump and chase, or chip and chase to get the puck deep and possess it longer thus giving the D more opportunities to pinch and get involved. We seemed to do a better job of this earlier in the year (first 7 or 8 games) so perhaps we need to go back to the original lines to regain that forechecking edge.
Smoothie -
Very interesting.
Your answer raises a couple of follow-on questions.
If I understand you correctly, the SOG imbalance is due (in part) to forwards focusing too much on setting up odd man rushes. There are too many forwards hanging back at center ice looking for breakaways. I think that certainly part of the answer, btw.
Which is maybe another way of saying that our offense relies too much on individual speed up the middle and not enough on passing strategies that utilize the whole rink - thereby bringing the whole team along (albeit more slowly) out of the D-zone and into the O-zone?
Which leads to the obvious next question. Is this an offense set up to serve Kovie's unique skills? Which leads to the much bigger question. Are his unique skills, long term, getting in the way of moving this team to the next level?
You can't become a premier team with our SOG numbers night in, night out. I worry that the SOG imbalance is a structural, not a temporary, thing given the composition of this team.
I think your second paragraph hits the nail on the head. We definitely need to use more of the rink and not rely so heavily on diagonal passes through the neutral zone. I think the boys are sometimes victims of their own skilled devices as they are such good passers that they force things when it would be easier to just carry the puck up the ice or chip it in.
We saw how good they can be when they put forth the effort to fore-check (the 3rd period against the Canes) and possess the puck rather than rely on the counter-attacking break-out and possible odd-man rush. I think they just need to simplify the game more early on, get the puck deep, work it into the corners and behind the net and put the pressure on the other team to break-out. We've been doing too much of that and waiting too patiently for the counter-attack off the other team's mistakes.
"I think they just need to simplify the game more early on, get the puck deep, work it into the corners and behind the net and put the pressure on the other team to break-out."
Agreed.
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