Nashville Host Thrashers Who Hope to Make Predators' Their Prey

UPDATED BELOW CUZ I WAS WRONG:

Not much to say except "damn it all to hell" since the game isn't on TV ANYWHERE! Not even in Tennessee! What the hell? Well, enjoy some pictures from our on-the-glass vantage at the last home game in which the Thrash managed to hold off the Ducks and start their week with a win. That win spawned a nice come-from-behind rally in Philadelphia and win over the Flyers who have typically owned the Thrashers like an older brother owns his young bro in driveway basketball. Perhaps the Thrashers will continue their more inspired play of late and continue a miserable losing streak for the Preds, who have lost their last 5 after winning 3 straight. Per ajc.com reporter, Chris Vivlamore, who is actually traveling with the team, Johan "Headless"-berg (see Philly game) will get the nod over a rested and motivated Pavelec due to his red hot play of late. The man named Moose, who has allowed only 6 goals in his last 4 games, will man the blue paint tonite and put his .950 SV% (over the last 4 games) on the line against feisty Finn Pekka Rinne. Rich Peverley -- formerly of Predator employ -- will surely look to terrorize his old mates again to show them how wrong they were for not making room for him in their line-up.

Ride the Lightning or Die (Metaphorically)

Yes it's trite, but the Thrashers don't really do much other than anger me of late. My suggestion: they all listen to an hour of Metallica songs from Ride the Lightning, Master of Puppets and Kill 'em All before the game tonite in an attempt to channel their inner "monster" for the contest against Tampa. No matter what the line-up is or how JA shuffles the lines again (Kozlov finally sits and we resume our "musical line-combos" game), each and every player needs to play like "some kind of monster" in order to vanquish the Bolts and, in the process, electrify their fans. On second thought, it's gonna take a lot more than a win over the Dolts, but it would be a start...especially if they knock the ol' Nitty-"monkey" off their backs finally.

Guilty as charged...but damn it, it ain't right...someone else controlling me;

Death is in the air, strapped in the electric chair...this can't be happening to me

Boys, it's time to escape the electric chair and take back your destiny.

Thrashers Look to Regain Playoffs Position Foothold Against Familiar Inter-Divisional Foe

Ce soir, les Thrasherz don their burgundy-colored rain gear to prepare for a low-pressure system that is moving in from the Northeast. It appears as though the Carolina Hurricanes have brought their favorite brand of weather, as well as their dreary misfortunes, with them from The Old North State. But this time a new captain will be steering the ship as Eric "don't call me Jordan" Staal has assumed command of the flagging vessel formerly guided by the esteemed, but age-weary Rod Brind'Amour. Will Staal's promotion from Bull Ensign to Captain instill some renewed vigor into the bones of his mates? We shall find out first-hand as K-belle and the Speaker navigate the treacherous roads of Atlanta en route to the "Bulb" in a luxurious and elegant "road yacht", a Buick Lucerne, for a 7:08 (Bulova time of course) puck drop between the T-birds and the capsizing Canes.

Thrashers Smoke Buds...Totally Awesome Dude.

(Oh yaa eh? Photo taken by Associated Press peeps)

Tonite. Down at the Bulb. Admidst a bevy of hosers, eh? Entertaining game...unless you were living and dying with every play. Because every game means so much; every point matters. Luckily, an early first period malaise did not fester. The gut was checked, intensity was cranked up and the challenge was overcome. How? Kovy. Lots and lots of kinetic Kovy, whose 3rd period goal was killer. Kane did work too; his wrap-around stuff job sparked images of a circling hawk swooping in for his prey. He was pleased. Pevs was strong and stuffed home a what? Yes, a POWER PLAY GOAL!! Karma was on our side and Maple Leaf spirit was crushed like a certain Democrat who was flattened by a ginormous elephant named Brown. Above all, Kovy was Kaptain Klutch and we can only hope he loves us as much as we love him.

P.S. - Pavelec was super solid and he too overcame early adversity. His teammates mobbed him in approval after they survived the purplish-blue barrage of bullets at the end that never would seem to come fast enough. Want more? Too bad. Here's Viv's write-up in the AJC - dot com.

Does Tonite's Game in South Florida Count as a "Must-Win"?

Perhaps one of the most overused phrases in sports is that of "must-win". Just ask Arnold Schwarzenegger's character, Ben Richards, in the movie The Running Man about what must-win really means.

At any rate, a quick glance at the current Eastern Conference standings delivers the sobering reality that faces your Atlanta Thrashers tonite. To keep pace with the teams not only above them, but also near them in the standings, they must take advantage of the chance to earn two points against a team they've beaten twice already this year.

And when you factor in the fact that the N.Y. Islanders, currently in the 8th spot just fractional percentage points ahead of Montreal, and the Ottawa Senators have caught fire of late, then you realize just how important a game against the Panthers, who sit just one point below the Thrashers in 11th becomes. Not to mention the fact that one of Florida's best players, Stephen Weiss, will not suit up and play tonite in Sunrise, FL. But the Thrashers have found some much-needed chemistry with their new line combinations and have seem re-focused and resolute in their last three outings since getting absolutely demolished by the Washington Capitals on January 9th.

The best analogy I can think of for this time of year in the long journey of attrition that is the 82-game NHL schedule is that of "moving day" at a golf tournament (the 3rd or Saturday round). On "moving day", players who are within 7 or 8 strokes of the lead go for broke and try to shoot themselves into contention for victory on Sunday. By the time March rolls around, it is much harder to make up ground on teams that are ahead of you in the standings. For the Thrashers, the stretch of games between now and February 13th (last day of games before the Olympic Games hiatus) is their "moving day". There are 13 games left before the 2-week Winter Games "holiday" and it would behoove the Thrashers to win 65-70% of these games, most of which are against teams below or near them in the standings.

7 of the next 13 games are against teams between 10th and 15th in the Eastern Conference including games versus Carolina, whom they just beat 5 to 3 on Saturday, Toronto tomorrow and Florida tonite. And 5 of the other 6 teams are in the Western Conference, thus giving the Thrashers a chance to earn "free" points by beating teams that aren't chasing them in their respective conference. Luckily, the Thrashers have won 6 of the 10 games they've played already against Western Conference competition. If they can earn 6 or 7 points in those five games against Western Conference teams, the Thrashers will be in much better position on "Sunday" to earn a Top 8 finish in the regular season tournament.

Going a step further, the Thrashers will need at least 42 of the remaining 70 points (60%) available to them in order to have a shot at the 8th seed in the conference. Using history as a guide, 90 to 93 points will probably earn you either 7th or 8th depending on the year. As poorly as the team played in December, the luck of the schedule draw, along with a home-heavy slate of games in March, may combine to help the Thrashers gain a playoff berth. Take a look at the games they have remaining against teams who presently hold 10 of the 11 bottom spots in the standings:

# 5) Boston - 1 road contest left
# 6) Ottawa - 1 home game left
# 7) NY Rangers - 1 home game
# 8) NY Islanders - 1 home game
# 9) Montreal - 0 games remaining
#10) Philly - 3 games left (1 H & 2 A)
#11) Atlanta - 49 points in 47 games
#12) Florida - 3 games left (2 H & 1 A)
#13) Tampa - 3 games left (1 H & 2 A)
#14) Toronto - 3 games left (2 H & 1 A)
#15) Carolina - 4 games left (3 H & 1 A)

That is a total of 20 games, out of 35 remaining, against teams who are either below them in the standings (13 gms) or within reach (5 points or less). There are only 8 points separating 5th place Boston from 13th place Tampa in the standings. Fortunately, the Thrashers have games in hand on several teams including 1 on Boston, 3 on Ottawa, 2 on the Rangers, 1 on the Isles and 3 on the Montreal Canadiens, against whom the Thrashers earned a very valuable 6 of 11 (due to OTL points) points in the standings.

So now is the time for the Thrashers to stockpile points in a 4-week stretch of "must-win" games. If they are only able to scrape their way to a near .500 record or fade even further as a result of another agonizingly long losing streak, then the Thrashers might as well be considered "dead on arrival" when post-Olympics play resumes on March 2nd.

Kaptain Kovalchuk Saves the Day with Clutch Go-Ahead Goal Against Cranky Canes

Kaptain Ilya Kovalchuk rose to the occasion with the game on the line by ripping a laser beam of a wrist-shot past Can Ward to give the Thrashers the crucial go-ahead goal midway through the 3rd period. The goal sparked his team at a critical juncture -- shortly after Carolina had tied the game with two goals in just under 1:30 -- and stood up as the game-winning tally in the Saturday evening inter-divisional tilt versus the Hurricanes in Raleigh, NC.

Kovy had help in the form of goals by each of the following players: Zach Bogosian, Jimmy "Second Half" Slater, Ricky "Peverlicious" Peverley and an empty netter by Nik "the Human Eclipse" Antropov. Each of the above players recorded an assist in addition to a goal as the Thrashers staved off a 3rd period rally by the pesky Canes, who despite a very disappointing season to date, rarely go down without a fight. The first regulation win on the road since the last trip to the RBC Center in late November was a total team effort in which Ondrej Pavelec continued his recent resurgence with another solid outing. Pavelec allowed 3 goals on 32 shots, but he made important stops when it mattered most including a big stop on a first period penalty shot by Eric Staal, who was hooked by Ron Hainsey on a breakaway attempt prior to the subsequent penalty.

Thrashers Snap Regulation Win(less) Streak!!!

As I sit here and wait for the replay of Tabitha's Salon Takeover to start on Bravo, I have a few moments to reflect on the satisfying 6 to 1 thrashing of the Ottawa Senators tonite at the Bulb. First of all, it was nice to enter a third period knowing we were going to win. And secondly, it was really nice to get home so early. Not to say that I don't want a full building, but it is rather nice to beat the hell out of a team, get out of Dodge (downtown) without hassle and manage to get home by 10:30.

Anyway, let's briefly recap the 3 Keys to the Game that I presented below before the game.

1) Improved Goaltending - check. Ondrej Pavelec was re-born as a more than capable net-minder with a very strong outing in which he stopped all but 1 of 31 shots fired into his paraphenelia. More importantly, he battled hard all night, did not over commit and made two show-stopping breakaway saves at crucial junctures...albeit both on Jarkko "Call me Jerkko" Ruutu. 'Atta boy Pavs! Way to "Czech yo' self before you wreck yo' self (courtesy K-belle of blogtastico!).

2) Attention to Detail (and Greater Intensity) - big freakin' check! The unusual line combos worked very well tonite as each line seemed to play with an elevated level of determination, focus and intensity. There was lots of hitting, crashing of the net and hustle all night. Eric Boulton whooped Chris Neil's ass in fine style and even Slava Kozlov nearly dropped the gloves after getting harrassed something fierce by Jerkko Ruutu, if I recall correctly. Jimmy "Scandalous" Slater tried to be quite scandalous in defending his and his team's honor, but the over-officious jerk of a ref did not allow Jimmy to remove his helmet and visor to engage in fisticuffs. All around it was a better effort for 60 full minutes and the boys really seemed to respond to the line shake-up.

3) Power Play Efficiency - not so much. While the first goal was actually a PP tally, no one really realized it because it was scored on an odd-man rush of sorts by the lethal goal-scorer, ERIC BOULTON! The weirdest line combo of the night (Boults - White - Kozlov) actually yielded TWO goals and ended up a +1 on the evening, a nice reward for their hard-nosed effort against Ottawa's scrappy grinding line. On the other hand, the usual PP unit combinations (although Kovy did ring one off the post) produced the usual Power PASS results: NOTHING! This needs to change and soon. By the way John Anderson, I don't think the unit of Slater, Boulton, Thorburn, Bogo and Kubes is going to cut it! Although getting Bogosian out there gives me a happy!

One last note: the Thrashers held their opponent to 31 shots once again and despite a second period in which they were outshot by 11, they came back strong in the 3rd and continued to put pressure on the Sens with 8 shots to Ottawa's 9 including Bryan Little's laser-like slapper from the left circle for a goal 14 seconds into the final stanza. A very nice bonus indeed. In fact, it makes me want to dance like this! I think my lovely K-belle (Bryan's biggest fan) would agree.

Happy dancing Blueland!

Time for the Thrash to Legislate Some Hockey Justice on the Visiting Sens!!

Gameday Preview:

I don't normally do gameday previews in the typical fashion, like the one here written by the passionate hockey blogger, DaculaFan of the blog Fanthrashtic. However, to impress upon you the importance of winning today's contest against a reeling Sens squad, I wanted to provide some of the usual pre-game statistical fodder to reveal what this game means in the context of the NHL "playoffs race". I'll let you decide whether Atlanta should be included in that discussion after you review these nuggets gleaned from Dacula's blog:

-- Atlanta is currently in 11th place in the conference, tied in points with division rival Tampa Bay and only 1 point ahead of the Florida Panthers with 44 points

-- Ottawa is in 7th place in the league with 48 points but is on a 4 game skid

-- Ottawa is struggling this year on the power play with the league worst PP at 14.2% -- Atlanta's PP is 11th in the league at 19.9% (but slumping badly of late)

-- Ottawa has the 14th ranked PK at 82.2% and Atlanta is 22nd at 80% (uh oh!)

And lastly, a few more game-day points of my own to consider:

1) Center Jason Spezza is out with a MCL tear in his right knee and is not expected back until sometime in mid-February (probably after the Olympics)

2) LW Milan Michalek -- a very important 2-way player -- is now out for an indefinite time due to a concussion he recently suffered 3 games ago

3) RW Daniel Alfredsson has missed 8 games with a separated shoulder. He is traveling with the team, but his status for tonite is most likely doubtful

4) Center Jesse Winchester -- a banging 4th liner who provides energy -- is now out until the middle of February with a messed-up knee cap

5) D-man Filip Kuba is questionable as well (the old day-to-day deal) with an upper body injury and it is not clear whether he'll suit up tonite

6) RW, and Thrasher killer of late (probably because we traded him), Shean Donovan is back down on the 4th line where he might do some more damage against our newly demoted "stars" Todd White and Slava Kozlov, who have not been earning their combined $6.3 M gross pay

After seeing that juicy 6-pack of information, you can see why I think this game is not only winnable, but a must-win. Lose here and confidence plummets even further. Hopefully, Ondrej Pavelec can capture some of that early season magic against a team he completely owned back on 11/1/09 with 50 miraculous saves (one off of his unmasked neck / facial area even!). Hope.

Waddell Gets "Tough", Thrashers Fans Bristle and John Anderson Tinkers as Blueland Burns

If you made your way to this blog, you have more than likely already feasted your eyes on this:

But that's not really what I want to talk about because a) I feel like I've covered this ground too many times lately with friends and bloggers alike b) I'm sick to my stomach thinking about how our GM, Donnie Waddell has botched the negotiations with Kovy and c) none of it matters if the Thrashers don't figure out how to win at least 5 of the next 8 games.

Obviously, I hate to bump down such a fun topic as Casino Night, but the Thrashers are running out of time. The team is about to enter the (say it with me if you've heard this song before!) most crucial stretch of hockey of this barely half-completed season. This week, the Thrashers welcome two more teams to Blueland: Ottawaaaaah! on Tuesday and Buffablow (sorry SabreCraig!) on Thursday. After that it's two games on the road against divisional foes Carolina and then Florida. Then the Birds come home for a two-game set versus Toronto (eh?) and the Canes once again. They round out a two-week stretch of 8 games with a roadie in Tampon Bay followed by a Tuesday home special versus the Not-So-Mighty Ducks of Orange County, CA.

As you can see, the schedule is getting very hectic as the condensed schedule winds closer and closer to the fortnight of non-stop Olympic winter games action. For the Thrashers, the upcoming schedule can finally be considered favorable without making any caveats that seem to always pop up as excuses later on after a rough patch of games. But the last 40 days could not have provided a rougher patch of games -- a stretch that saw the Thrashers muddle their way to a 5 - 12 - 3 record for a whopping 13 points out of a possible 40. Ouch!

Entering tomorrow night's game, the Thrashers will be clinging to the 11th spot in the Eastern Conference standings and they are in serious jeopardy of falling into 13th if they don't win. At this point in the season, the playoff picture can change in an instant. But none of that matters for the 19 - 19 - 6 Thrashers as they are close enough to pick up some ground with a good stretch of hockey over the next two weeks. For the combined record of the upcoming 7 opponents, if my quick math is right, is right at ".500" if you treat OTL's as ties like in the olden days. Take away Buffalo's record and the combined record is 17 games below .500! If the Thrashers can't make proverbial hay over this stretch, I will most definitely try to find other things to do with my free time.

So what are the keys to success for the Thrashers in the coming two weeks? Their prospects hinge on three things: 1) goaltending 2) attention to detail and 3) the power play. First and foremost, the Thrashers are sunk without better goaltending. They have already lost a ton of water due to the very leaky goaltending since early December. If Ondrej Pavelec doesn't get out of his funk and "Moose" Hedberg is forced to carry the entire load, they will be in trouble. However, if they can elevate their games enough to the point where they are keeping 90.5 to 91.0% of shots out of their net, they will be able to rack up some points and perhaps move up in the standings.

Before I get to the other two keys, let me bore you with some statistical analysis. While recent failures would not seem to indicate that success is attainable right now, consider this: over the last 10 games, the Thrashers have actually reduced the number of shots on goal allowed to an average of 31.1 (I removed the Washington game since that type of blowout is an aberration), down from their average of 34.6 through 41 games this season. Unfortunately, the goaltending has rendered this fact meaningless. But if the SV% returns to an acceptable level (say 90.5%), then a positive goal differential of +6 or more is attainable with a shooting percentage of 10.0% on 30.3 shots per game, which has been their average for the 10 games prior to the Washington debacle.

But improved goaltending is only one piece of the puzzle. If the Thrashers' players don't fully commit to the gameplans and execute them with a greater attention to detail, they will not keep pucks out of their net. There have been too many mental lapses, high-risk plays leading to mistakes and a lack of mental perseverance when adversity arises. At this point, if the team isn't pissed-off enough to play with more pride and do a better job at clearing the crease and protecting their goalies from collapsing forwards, then they will never rediscover their mental edge. This team used to have confidence and even a bit of a swagger. Well, that is long gone. But it can be regained if more than a select handful of players come to the rink in an ornery, chip-on-your-shoulder mood. The time to play for one another, regardless of the Kovy contract fiasco and his poor leadership, is NOW. Every single external distraction must be blocked out and the intensity level must be ramped up several notches...as Mel Brooks once said, "take us to ludicrous speed!"

Finally, special teams, as they were early in the season, can be a major key to their success. When they were winning, they were scoring bushels of power play goals and yielding very few short-handed goals against. That has long since changed. It has been over a month since the special teams play either keyed a win or saved a loss. Of late, the PP has been miserable and the rate of efficiency has dropped to around 10% over the last 40 or so man-advantage opportunities. Too many Kovy one-timers and not enough variety in the types of plays they are making when they are up a man. A Kovy one-timer isn't the problem per se, but when it becomes the primary option 80% of the time, then it is emblematic of the symptom. Other players need to be involved and players who may prefer finesse need not be afraid to get roughed up in front of the net in the effort to kick home some garbage or jam home a "greasy" goal.

Can the Thrashers right this ship and do more than simply plug these leaks? Do they have the mental toughness to shuttle buckets of water out of the boat when things don't go their way early in a game? Are they willing to make some sacrifices and pick up an oar and paddle extra hard when a team-mate isn't at his best? I know these are lame metaphors playing on an even lamer sinking ship motif, but the point is the same. The only way to save this vessel is for all 40 hands on deck to work their collective tail off, all the while maintaining a singular focus on doing the many small intangible things that win hockey games.

Casino Night Provides Scandal & Intrigue...And Plenty of Photo Ops

Okay, perhaps "scandal and intrigue" is a bit of a stretch, but a grand time was had by all, especially by James a.k.a "Jimmy Scandalous" Slater and the uber-cool German, Christophe Schubert, who helped myself and the lovely K-belle gain entrance to the "VIP" section upstairs so we could track down a hiding Bryan Little for a very important photo-op.

There were several great moments throughout the evening, but the most memorable consisted of a charming and charismatic Marty "the Party" Reasoner helping his patrons (several from Western NY) win as many big hands as possible, Schubie's teutonic grace in handling our "Bryan Little situation" and K-belle's decision to advise two of our young Eastern Block friends, Ondrej Pavelec (Czech) and Boris Valabik (Slovak) to print T-shirts that read "You bettah czech yo' self before you wreck yo' self!"

If such tantalizing tales of frivolity and hi-jinx intrigue you so, please check out the following link for pictures and descriptions of said shenanigans at Opera Night Club in midtown Atlanta: (http://krisabelle.blogspot.com/2010/01/casino-night-rocked-all-hell-fires.html

One Down...And Only a Dozen to Go!!

AUTHOR'S NOTE: THIS ENTRY IS THE CONTINUATION OF THE JANUARY 4TH ENTRY

For those of you who know a little about theology, you know that today (1/6) is a special day in the official Church calendar. If you're a little unsure of what I'm talking about, just think 'wise men' and 'frankincense' and 'myrh'. Yes, that's right! Today is the day of Epiphany or the day on which the three suspected wise-men (or Biblical Magi as the hip theologians like to say) arrived in Bethlehem to bestow their assorted gifts upon Mary, Joseph and their little baby Jesus.

Who will be the Thrashers next savior??

What does that have anything to do with hockey you ask? Well, nothing really. Unless the three "wisest" men of the Thrashers, GM Don Waddell, Associate GM Rick Dudley and Coach John Anderson put their heads together today and figured out a way to break a 9-game losing streak. As far as this blog writer is concerned, the great epiphany in this instance is the sobering discovery that the Thrashers pretty much suck. Well, there's that...AND the realization that the Thrashers are in all likelihood NOT a playoff-caliber team. UNLESS of course they can figure out a way to avoid losing more than 12 games the rest of the way. So in essence, the Thrashers "magic" number has been revealed to this "wise ass", if you beg my pardon, after much deep instrospection and a bit of number-crunching savoir-faire.

After a hope-crushing 5 to 2 loss to a very ordinary (and fatigued) looking Pittsburgh Penguins team last night, I decided that I would need to take a different mental approach to the remainder of the Thrashers' season -- one of analytical assessment, if you will. Afterall, with 23 more home games to attend between now and April 10th, how else will I survive the mental strain and emotional strife the Thrashers like to bestow upon me? But before I delve into how many wins and points they will need for any realistic shot of a playoff run – mind you, this assumes that Kovy stays the rest of the season and keeps doing his usual goal-scoring thang – I will first provide some analytics.

First and foremost, how in the world will this team find a way to win not only now, but in the long-run? Short and simple: CUT DOWN THE NUMBER OF SHOTS!! PERIOD!! Over the course of a long season, accummulated shots mean more and more. Sure, Moose may occasionally stand on his head for a couple of games stopping 95% of 80 shots faced, but that is the anomaly, not the rule. The more shots our net-minders face, the more likely, and the sooner, they will break down. I don’t think many will argue that causal relationship, at least not in the Thrashers’ case.

To date, through 42 games, the Thrashers have allowed 1,427 shots to find their way to their goalies' equipment or goal. So far, Thrashers' goalies have stopped 90.7% of these shots yielding 133 goals (not including empty netters) for a GAA average of 3.17, which is now slightly higher than the rate at which this team scores goals (3.15). In order to have any chance of winning 60% (needed for 90+ points) of the available remaining points, the Thrashers must cut down the average number of shots on goal to about 32 shots per game, assuming a save percentage of .905. But that also assumes an offensive shot percentage that exceeds 10.25% to ensure they score enough goals on their average of 29 shots per game.

As you can see, the Thrashers will have very little margin of error when it comes to their team defense going forward unless Kari Lehtonen returns to the nets and dazzles us with a save percentage of .915 or higher for a couple of months time. At an average of .915, the Thrashers could probably afford to give up an average of 33 SOG the rest of the way. Basically, every 10 basis points affords them the luxury of giving up an additonal 1 shot on goal per game over 40 games. But that is too risky since there is always a chance the shooting percentage falls off its current rate of 10.85 and drops below 10% for the season. Since every shot against they save, on average, helps drop the total number of goals allowed by 3 to 4, shoring up team defense is the best way to ensure that your goalies save more than 91.5% of their shots over a 40-game stretch.

Is the above a bit complicated? It most certainly is without the aid of an Excel spreadsheet and some patience. But I have run the numbers in a nifty chart comparing Shots For with Shots Against, and I can assure you that reducing the number of shots to an average that is closer to 30 / game (as opposed to 34) is necessary for the Thrashers to end up with a positive goal differential and more wins. Will it get them to the needed total of 40 or so wins for the season?? Only time will tell. But statistically speaking, this Thrasher team has produced enough evidence over a 25 game stretch to show that such a win total is attainable.

But how many points are enough?

The number of points needed is open to debate, but 90 is probably the bare minimum needed to earn the # 8 seed. In this particular season, 88 or 89 might just get it done since none of the teams below the Top 5 in the Eastern Conference are without their flaws. And none of them have earned points at a pace higher than 56%. So there is still some hope for the Thrashers, who earned points at a 65% clip for the first 24 games of the season. But time is running out. The Thrashers must start winning NOW, as in tomorrow against the Rangers. And then again, on Saturday, against the Capitals. Now is the time as the next 4 games, and 6 of the next 8, are played in the cozy confines of Philips Arena.

Personally I'm not sure if the Thrashers can do it. If you had asked me at Thanksgiving, I would have said emphatically "hell yeah", and even after the early December road-trip swoon I might have said "yeah, they'll regroup and get back on track." However, now I'm not so sure as the statistical evidence over the last 18 games says "oh hell nah!" When you barely earn over 30% of available points during roughly one calendar month, doubt and resignation start to creep in.

To prove me wrong, the Thrashers can ill-afford any more extended losing streaks (more than 2 games) and I doubt they can afford anymore than 12 losses. They might be able to get away with 13 losses, IF they can win 23 or 24 games. But lose any more than this, and they are toast! If they can go 3 - 0 - 1 over the next 4-game homestand, that will put them at 49 points with a realistic shot. From there, they will only (I know, I know) need to rack up 19 wins against 13 losses, coupled with 4 OT "loser" points.

Piece of cake, right? Not so much, but 23 of the last 40 games are on home ice and, by and large, the vast majority of them are against teams currently placed 6th through 15th in the conference with a whopping 8 games (and 16 points available) versus 14th place Toronto and 15th place Carolina. Of course, their last 5 games, in April, come against the likes of Washington, Pittsburgh and New Jersey so they better win with frequency between now and March 31st. I'm certainly not counting on it at this point, but a second-half record of 22 - 14 - 5 doesn't seem entirely out of reach.

Playoffs Begin Today for Atlanta Thrashers!!

Today marks the first day of the 2nd half of the season and probably the beginning of the end of the Ilya Kovalchuk era, which commenced in 2001 when the plucky 18 year-old phenom from Tver, Russia burst upon the stage scoring 29 goals in his first 65 games as a pro. Since then, Czar Kovy has electrified the Blueland masses (okay, that's a stretch) with hat-tricks, sensational stick-handling wizardry and speed, 50-goal seasons and memorable game-winning heroics. But I digress: that's a topic covered ad nauseam on many other fine blogs like this.

While Don Waddell works feverishly in a desperate attempt to re-sign his superstar sniper, Coach John Anderson is stewing over game-film and surely chewing butt during limited, precious practice time in the effort to not only plug another "leak in the dyke", but reinforce a team's confidence that has been sorely shaken in the past month. The last 17 games, especially the most recent 8, have been quite forgettable for the Thrashers who have seen their record, which previously stood at 6 games over .500 on 11/30/09, sink to barely above at 18 - 17 - 3. So what is it that caused this team to slog through December with a record of 4 - 10 - 3 (and a current winless streak of 0 - 5 - 3) and wind up facing a tall mountain to climb in the second half??

Well, there are numerous reasons, most of which have been clearly itemized to the right of this column for your reading displeasure (be sure you have some Tums on hand to quell the reflux of disgust that is sure to scorch your esophagus as you read). But the biggest and most important, at least in this not-so-humble blogger's mind, is the number of shots yielded by this team on a regular basis. To date, the Thrashers have given up nearly 34 shots per game, which I believe is second worst in the NHL.

Through December 17th, the Thrashers were a statistical anomaly the likes of which couldn't be explained by even the most expert quantitative statistician at Georgia Tech! For our baffling Birds managed to capture 39 of 66 (.591) points out of a possible 66 while giving up a whopping 1,142 shots on goal (34.6 per game) and only allowing 94 of them pass through a goalie and across the goal-line. If you're scoring at home, that is a lovely GAA of just over 2.84 goals per game thanks to the impressive, if not somewhat fortunate, .918 save percentage of the net-minding duo, Pavelec and Hedberg.

Well, the Thrashers could only tempt fate for so long. Over the next 8 games (6 on the road), the over-taxed ego of 22 y/o Ondrej Pavelec snapped and the over-burdened body of 36 y/o veteran Johan Hedberg started to show obvious signs of fatigue. Pavelec's statistical misery has been clearly documented to the right, and the "Moose" is starting to show his age. While Moose has battled hard and admirably, his save percentage has taken a hit as well. Since 12/14 against the Rangers, when he did everything but laid-out backhand springs and scissor-kicking wheel dogs to stop a career-high 46 of 48 shots on goal, Moose's once sterling SV% of .932 has faded to a still-marvelous .916. But you just get the feeling the sage veteran's GAA of 2.62 will be on life-support sooner than later.

So how do the Thrashers fix this issue you ask? As if I have any clue! Seriously, if I had better advice than John Anderson, then I probably wouldn't be typing it on a blog. But I do have some theories, if you will, that will knock your analytical socks off. Okay, not exactly, but after the jump, I plan on getting statistically and analytically "medieval on your buttocks."

TICK, TICK, TICK, TICK........BOOOOOM!!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3y9B0YLoPFA&feature=related

C'mon, C'mon...Kari C'mon!! Parane pian Karppa! Voit tehda sen!!

From our esteemed ajc.com beat writer:

Chris Vivlamore
January 4th, 2010 1:03 pm

"You asked and so did I today. About to post a new blog on Lehtonen but this is what Anderson said today: “He’s been doing a lot, actually,” Anderson said Monday. “We took him on the [recent] road [trip] and practiced him pretty hard. He’s getting closer. It’s a matter of conditioning. I hate to give a time frame, but 2-3 weeks I don’t think is out of the realm.”

It's like a tweet without the twitter thingy...ain't the blogosphere cool??

At any rate, Kari come rescue us from despair and reverse this downward spiral!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RFGo5cqcxP4&NR=1&feature=fvwp

Satan Loves Seafood...Signs with Boston

http://twitter.com/CraigCustance

Apparently, the persuasive powers of Zdeno Chara (a fellow Slovakian who looks a bit evil himself) are more powerful than the Master of Darkness himself, SATAN!!

Miroslav Satan, greedy for yet another Cup hoist, has decided that the boys in (Pic Courtesy of Bruce Bennett, Getty) Bean-town have the staying power of a very heady bowl of clam chowdah. And naturally, Satan believes he can contribute to their collective quest to crumble some crackers into Lord Stanley's Cup sometime in mid-June.

"You know...Frederic fucking Chopin!"

Another heart-breaking loss for the Thrashers.

After a spirited effort for the first 40 minutes, in which the Thrashers scored the first 3 goals of the game -- scored by Kovy, Kane and (hark!) Little -- against the Sabres in Buffalo tonite, bad habits and tentative play in the early portion of the third stanza came back to bite the Birds in the ass once again. In what has become an all-too familiar refrain of "oh no, here we go again!", the Thrashers gave up two goals in the first 5 minutes of the 3rd period before responding with some renewed intensity of their own in the last 10 minutes.

But alas, a late, heroic goal was not in the offing tonite and the Thrashers fell victim to not only a lucky carom in OT, but also their own collective doubt. Fragile confidence was shaken in the early going of the 3rd period and their rattled pysche was evident until the game was knotted at 3. At that point, the Thrashers awoke from their daze and realized they really didn't have anything to lose. Unfortunately, it did not matter as the Sabres capitalized on the Thrashers' misfortune and skated away happy with a 4 to 3 O.T. win. And Thrashers fans are left with nothing but the sting of chest pains that continue to worsen from a slowly breaking heart.

Maestro! Please cue the Chopin:

Can the Thrashers Find Inspiration in the Winter Classic?

Tonight as the Thrashers prepare to take on the Buffalo Sabres at the HSBC Arena at 7:30 pm, we as fans can only hope that there is some positive chatter in the lockeroom regarding the experiences of current Thrashers Colby Armstrong and Maxim Afinogenov, who both played in the inaugural Winter Classic played in Orchard Park, NY on January 1, 2008. Colby, then a Penguin, and Maxim, then a Sabre, have probably chatted at length Army chases Finny (Harry How, Getty Images) about their shared experience of playing in the now super-hyped, NHL marketing boon-game as members of their former teams. Perhaps that chatter and good-natured ribbing (by Colby of course) will lead to some renewed vigor and determination from their fellow Thrashers, who surely witnessed the Boston Bruins rally late in the third period to overcome a ready and physical Philadelphia Flyers team 2 to 1 in O.T.

As the New Year begins for the Thrashers, it would be a mistake to think that an instant paradigm shift will have occurred between Wednesday evening, when the most lackluster effort (if it can be called that), of the season produced a 4 - 0 thumping at the hands of the Bruins, and tonight when they do battle with a solid Sabres team who make very few mistakes. But there is a chance that a player like Colby Armstrong, who is so good in the "room", can draw on his elevated passion to rally the troops and get them fired up to face Ryan Miller, the likely starting back-stop for the U.S. Olympic Team. If you're a fan of hockey like most of these players, who grew up dreaming of big games like the Winter Classic, then how could you possibly come out of the tunnel and "dog it" for 60 minutes?? Surely there is no way, right?

And then there is Max Afinogenov, who has followed up an amazing November with a less-than inspiring December in which he managed just 2 goals, 8 assists and a very frightening -10 plus/minus rating that featured a horrible -13 for the first 19 days of the month!! If he can somehow summon up some of the same fervor that helped him produce an important and spectacular break-away goal against his former team in his first game back in Buffalo as a Thrasher, then perhaps the rest of the team will feed off of his passion and energy. Max, as flawed as his game can be, plays with a certain child-like exuberance which can be contagious for his fellow mates, for it comes from within a place deep inside his heart. And heart and passion have been sorely lacking for this team over the last couple of weeks.

I would hate it for my special friend, SabreCraig, if the Thrashers somehow managed to find their collective "mojo" playing against their favorite foe of late, the Buffalo Sabres. For those counting at home, the Thrashers have beaten the Sabres in six straight games since getting thrashed by the Sabres 10 - 1 on January 18, 2008. But if the Thrashers have any chance of turning things around before it's too late, tonight could be the perfect setting for them to re-ignite some familiar flames of passion against the Sabres, a team with which the Thrashers seem to match up well. If they are to beat the Sabres, they will need a renewed and more committed approach to team defense so Johan Hedberg doesn't face 42 shots -- 40 of which he deftly thwarted -- like the last time the Thrashers defeated Buffalo 4 to 2 in October.

Perhaps film of that game was studied in great detail as to highlight a time when the Thrashers were playing a more concerted team game with an earnest commitment to the game's finer nuances. Here's to hoping that such is the primary New Year's resolution of your Atlanta Thrashers.