Today marks the first day of the 2nd half of the season and probably the beginning of the end of the Ilya Kovalchuk era, which commenced in 2001 when the plucky 18 year-old phenom from Tver, Russia burst upon the stage scoring 29 goals in his first 65 games as a pro. Since then, Czar Kovy has electrified the Blueland masses (okay, that's a stretch) with hat-tricks, sensational stick-handling wizardry and speed, 50-goal seasons and memorable game-winning heroics. But I digress: that's a topic covered ad nauseam on many other fine blogs like this.
While Don Waddell works feverishly in a desperate attempt to re-sign his superstar sniper, Coach John Anderson is stewing over game-film and surely chewing butt during limited, precious practice time in the effort to not only plug another "leak in the dyke", but reinforce a team's confidence that has been sorely shaken in the past month. The last 17 games, especially the most recent 8, have been quite forgettable for the Thrashers who have seen their record, which previously stood at 6 games over .500 on 11/30/09, sink to barely above at 18 - 17 - 3. So what is it that caused this team to slog through December with a record of 4 - 10 - 3 (and a current winless streak of 0 - 5 - 3) and wind up facing a tall mountain to climb in the second half??
Well, there are numerous reasons, most of which have been clearly itemized to the right of this column for your reading displeasure (be sure you have some Tums on hand to quell the reflux of disgust that is sure to scorch your esophagus as you read). But the biggest and most important, at least in this not-so-humble blogger's mind, is the number of shots yielded by this team on a regular basis. To date, the Thrashers have given up nearly 34 shots per game, which I believe is second worst in the NHL.
Through December 17th, the Thrashers were a statistical anomaly the likes of which couldn't be explained by even the most expert quantitative statistician at Georgia Tech! For our baffling Birds managed to capture 39 of 66 (.591) points out of a possible 66 while giving up a whopping 1,142 shots on goal (34.6 per game) and only allowing 94 of them pass through a goalie and across the goal-line. If you're scoring at home, that is a lovely GAA of just over 2.84 goals per game thanks to the impressive, if not somewhat fortunate, .918 save percentage of the net-minding duo, Pavelec and Hedberg.
Well, the Thrashers could only tempt fate for so long. Over the next 8 games (6 on the road), the over-taxed ego of 22 y/o Ondrej Pavelec snapped and the over-burdened body of 36 y/o veteran Johan Hedberg started to show obvious signs of fatigue. Pavelec's statistical misery has been clearly documented to the right, and the "Moose" is starting to show his age. While Moose has battled hard and admirably, his save percentage has taken a hit as well. Since 12/14 against the Rangers, when he did everything but laid-out backhand springs and scissor-kicking wheel dogs to stop a career-high 46 of 48 shots on goal, Moose's once sterling SV% of .932 has faded to a still-marvelous .916. But you just get the feeling the sage veteran's GAA of 2.62 will be on life-support sooner than later.
So how do the Thrashers fix this issue you ask? As if I have any clue! Seriously, if I had better advice than John Anderson, then I probably wouldn't be typing it on a blog. But I do have some theories, if you will, that will knock your analytical socks off. Okay, not exactly, but after the jump, I plan on getting statistically and analytically "medieval on your buttocks."
TICK, TICK, TICK, TICK........BOOOOOM!!!!
3 comments:
I think you're right about Moose. As great as he's been, he's not the fresh young fellow you need to be a starting goaltender.
What this means, I have no idea. Perhaps Kari is the key.
Yes, Kari will probably HAVE to be the answer. We'll see, but I don't see Pavelec bouncing back against his nemesis the Pens tonite in Pit. Even if we lose this game, I think I have calculated the formulae that will allow the Thrash to make the playoffs. Problem is that Kovy fella.
So please tune in cuz there's so much more to come!
"(be sure you have some Tums on hand to quell the reflux of disgust that is sure to scorch your esophagus as you read)."
Too...much...good...stuff!!!!! And I thought the sprinkling-crackers-into-the-Stanley-Cup-of-chowdah was brillz! Another great entry!
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