Waddell Gets "Tough", Thrashers Fans Bristle and John Anderson Tinkers as Blueland Burns

If you made your way to this blog, you have more than likely already feasted your eyes on this:

But that's not really what I want to talk about because a) I feel like I've covered this ground too many times lately with friends and bloggers alike b) I'm sick to my stomach thinking about how our GM, Donnie Waddell has botched the negotiations with Kovy and c) none of it matters if the Thrashers don't figure out how to win at least 5 of the next 8 games.

Obviously, I hate to bump down such a fun topic as Casino Night, but the Thrashers are running out of time. The team is about to enter the (say it with me if you've heard this song before!) most crucial stretch of hockey of this barely half-completed season. This week, the Thrashers welcome two more teams to Blueland: Ottawaaaaah! on Tuesday and Buffablow (sorry SabreCraig!) on Thursday. After that it's two games on the road against divisional foes Carolina and then Florida. Then the Birds come home for a two-game set versus Toronto (eh?) and the Canes once again. They round out a two-week stretch of 8 games with a roadie in Tampon Bay followed by a Tuesday home special versus the Not-So-Mighty Ducks of Orange County, CA.

As you can see, the schedule is getting very hectic as the condensed schedule winds closer and closer to the fortnight of non-stop Olympic winter games action. For the Thrashers, the upcoming schedule can finally be considered favorable without making any caveats that seem to always pop up as excuses later on after a rough patch of games. But the last 40 days could not have provided a rougher patch of games -- a stretch that saw the Thrashers muddle their way to a 5 - 12 - 3 record for a whopping 13 points out of a possible 40. Ouch!

Entering tomorrow night's game, the Thrashers will be clinging to the 11th spot in the Eastern Conference standings and they are in serious jeopardy of falling into 13th if they don't win. At this point in the season, the playoff picture can change in an instant. But none of that matters for the 19 - 19 - 6 Thrashers as they are close enough to pick up some ground with a good stretch of hockey over the next two weeks. For the combined record of the upcoming 7 opponents, if my quick math is right, is right at ".500" if you treat OTL's as ties like in the olden days. Take away Buffalo's record and the combined record is 17 games below .500! If the Thrashers can't make proverbial hay over this stretch, I will most definitely try to find other things to do with my free time.

So what are the keys to success for the Thrashers in the coming two weeks? Their prospects hinge on three things: 1) goaltending 2) attention to detail and 3) the power play. First and foremost, the Thrashers are sunk without better goaltending. They have already lost a ton of water due to the very leaky goaltending since early December. If Ondrej Pavelec doesn't get out of his funk and "Moose" Hedberg is forced to carry the entire load, they will be in trouble. However, if they can elevate their games enough to the point where they are keeping 90.5 to 91.0% of shots out of their net, they will be able to rack up some points and perhaps move up in the standings.

Before I get to the other two keys, let me bore you with some statistical analysis. While recent failures would not seem to indicate that success is attainable right now, consider this: over the last 10 games, the Thrashers have actually reduced the number of shots on goal allowed to an average of 31.1 (I removed the Washington game since that type of blowout is an aberration), down from their average of 34.6 through 41 games this season. Unfortunately, the goaltending has rendered this fact meaningless. But if the SV% returns to an acceptable level (say 90.5%), then a positive goal differential of +6 or more is attainable with a shooting percentage of 10.0% on 30.3 shots per game, which has been their average for the 10 games prior to the Washington debacle.

But improved goaltending is only one piece of the puzzle. If the Thrashers' players don't fully commit to the gameplans and execute them with a greater attention to detail, they will not keep pucks out of their net. There have been too many mental lapses, high-risk plays leading to mistakes and a lack of mental perseverance when adversity arises. At this point, if the team isn't pissed-off enough to play with more pride and do a better job at clearing the crease and protecting their goalies from collapsing forwards, then they will never rediscover their mental edge. This team used to have confidence and even a bit of a swagger. Well, that is long gone. But it can be regained if more than a select handful of players come to the rink in an ornery, chip-on-your-shoulder mood. The time to play for one another, regardless of the Kovy contract fiasco and his poor leadership, is NOW. Every single external distraction must be blocked out and the intensity level must be ramped up several notches...as Mel Brooks once said, "take us to ludicrous speed!"

Finally, special teams, as they were early in the season, can be a major key to their success. When they were winning, they were scoring bushels of power play goals and yielding very few short-handed goals against. That has long since changed. It has been over a month since the special teams play either keyed a win or saved a loss. Of late, the PP has been miserable and the rate of efficiency has dropped to around 10% over the last 40 or so man-advantage opportunities. Too many Kovy one-timers and not enough variety in the types of plays they are making when they are up a man. A Kovy one-timer isn't the problem per se, but when it becomes the primary option 80% of the time, then it is emblematic of the symptom. Other players need to be involved and players who may prefer finesse need not be afraid to get roughed up in front of the net in the effort to kick home some garbage or jam home a "greasy" goal.

Can the Thrashers right this ship and do more than simply plug these leaks? Do they have the mental toughness to shuttle buckets of water out of the boat when things don't go their way early in a game? Are they willing to make some sacrifices and pick up an oar and paddle extra hard when a team-mate isn't at his best? I know these are lame metaphors playing on an even lamer sinking ship motif, but the point is the same. The only way to save this vessel is for all 40 hands on deck to work their collective tail off, all the while maintaining a singular focus on doing the many small intangible things that win hockey games.