Antropov Has Thrasher Fans Saying: "I like!"

If somebody walked up to me and asked, "So, how do you fancy having Nik Antropov on your team?", I would probably exclaim "Very nice!" with my hands giving the double thumbs-up sign like Kazakhstan's most famous commercial "product", Borat. But for those of us who reside here in Thrasherville, we know full well that Sacha Baron Cohen's kooky Kazakh character plays a close second to the most accomplished export from the former Soviet state, Nikolai Antropov. The imposing and skillful hockey player from Ust-Kamenogorsk has already made an indelible impression on the fans of the Atlanta Thrashers for his hard work, quiet leadership and adroit use of a hockey stick. Our only complaint? We just wish he would shoot the puck more!

The man known as...well, at least to me anyway, as the "Human Eclipse" has emerged as the best all-around player to wear the cobalt blue at Philips Arena. Add in the fact that he eclipsed just about every previous career high in his first year as a Thrasher and you can see why there is such optimism in Blueland about Nik's prospects for an even better year this coming season. Last season, Antropov registered a career best in seven statistical categories: total points (67), assists (43), plus/minus (+13), power play points (21), PP assists (13), average ice time (18:14) and shooting percentage (an obscenely high 19%). Now if we could only get the "Big A" to be a bit more selfish when the puck ends up on his stick in scoring positions on the ice.

Perhaps the biggest question surrounding Antropov is whether this season was the absolute pinnacle of his production or just the beginning of his finest "hour" of hockey. To answer this question, I've dived deep into a pile of stats to see if Nik is indeed trending in a positive upward fashion. At first blush, the answer seems like an obvious "duh, of course he is!" But a definitive conclusion can only be reached by going a little deeper into the numbers to flesh out the more meaningful statistical trends. Going back over the last 4 seasons I found lots of evidence to support the thinking that we're just beginning to see the best Kazakh-Nik-istan has to offer.

For each of the past 4 seasons, Nik has managed to increase significantly his points per minute output with each season being better than the one before. In '06-'07, Antropov's PPM output was .0368 and then .0387 in '07-'08, .0426 in '08-'09 and lastly .0484 in Atlanta. To make those numbers a little more meaningful, I have computed them as point per game (per 60 mins) averages as well: 2.21, 2.32, 2.56 and 2.90 as a T-bird. Translated over a full 82 game season, Nik would have registered the following point totals: 56, 59, 65 and 73, respectively. So it definitely seems as though Nik is not only trending upwards, but also still realizing his optimal potential as a player at the age of 30.

The best part of the statistical scoring trend for Nik is that his production has always increased in conjunction with additional ice-time when he's healthy. In 2006-07, an expected break-out season, Nik's season was marred by injuries and two extended periods of missed games. Despite only playing 54 games, and only 16:36 minutes per game on average, Nik managed to dent the back of the net 18 times, 13 of which came after he returned from a month and a half injury lay-off. In fact, he finished strong with 10 goals and 8 assists in his final 28 games of the season, a .64 point per game clip. Since then, Nik's PPG average has been above not only .64, but well above a .70 PPG pace. Last season his PPG peaked at .88 PPG.

Without looking at the numbers, some might argue that Nik's production only increased because he was getting significantly more power-play ice time. But that wasn't really the case as his PP TOI dropped in 2008-09 (when he split time in Toronto and New York) from a career best 3:35 the year before to just 2:50 with TOR and 3:21 as a Ranger. But what is impressive is the fact that his points per game increased to its highest level ever in 2009-10 as a Thrasher with the same 3:35 minutes of PP time as in his 56 point season in 2007-08. While Nik did in fact elevate his PP numbers to a career high level, his even-strength ice-time production increased markedly as well. His 46 ES points in 76 games (a .61 PPG avg) was by far his best season at ES in his 10-year career.

The potential red herring in this case is the fact that Nik Antropov got to play alongside a guy named Ilya Kovalchuk, who is probably the best line-mate he's ever had save for Mats Sundin, with whom Nik only played on an occasional basis early in his Toronto days. But interestingly enough, Nik, who is not afraid to pay the physical price to annoy goalies with his big butt in the crease, actually produced at a better rate (25 points in 25 games) after Kovalchuk was traded than he did before when he was producing at a .82 PPG rate. And that was in spite of a nagging hip injury which kept him from practicing most of the second half of the 2009-10 season.

Of course, the hip injury did seem to affect his defensive play (that and playing with Max Afinogenov instead of Bryan Little) down the stretch as his plus/minus took a serious hit -- from a +20 on February 6 to +13 in just 17 games -- after the lines were changed. Initially, the new line combination of Bergfors-Antropov-Little really gelled and put up impressive numbers (11 goals & 15 assists) in the 8 games they played together. However, the injury to Evander Kane and the subsequent dim-witted decision by former Head Coach John Anderson to shake up the lines, slowed Antropov's late-season production as he only registered 13 points in his last 17 games. But Bryan Little and Nick Bergfors were not quite the same after they were split up. Then again, the team wasn't quite the same without Evander Kane in the line-up to spread the talent evenly throughout the top 3 lines.

To wrap things up in what has become an alarmingly long and analysis-heavy entry (I do apologize but I've got to do something during the boring summer months to keep me busy!), I believe that Nik Antropov has arrived as an elite top-line player in this league. However, he isn't the greatest face-off man, but when healthy, his defensive awarness, hustle and long-reach more than make up for his paltry 41% F/O win percentage. Although I would prefer that he move to the wing on the PP so either Rich Peverley, Bryan Little or even Todd White (gasp!) can take and hopefully win the draw at least 55% of the time. But most importantly, the numbers support the assertion that big Nik is just starting to peak. Barring further injury issues -- luckily he has averaged 76 games over the last 3 seasons -- that keep him out of the line-up, I see no reason why he won't continue to play at a high level for the Thrashers for the next 3 seasons.

And that would surely make all of his fellow Kazakhs quite happy and proud. As for Thrashers fans, dare I say that three more seasons of .80 plus PPG production would make them all happy enough to make a "romance explosion" in their britches? Okay, perhaps not. Let's just say that it would make for the "benefit glorious nation of Blueland-ia" if Nik's numbers keep ascending.

Replacement for "Blueland" Mktg Campaign??

How about the T-ville Blue Zoo? Or just simply Zoo-land?

Paint this here little feller blue and white, or just blue where he's not black, and you've got a scary new mascot that will freeze our foes with fear! I give unto you the...

...Atlanta Zoo-land Zebr-onkey!!!

Not only is this Georgia's first cross-polinated hybrid zebra-donkey, it apparently resides right up the road in the cutting-edge town of Dahlonega! Behold this creature's utterly "zedonk"- ulous appearance!!

Now let's go out there on the ice and kick some (Z)ASS!!!

How 'Bout a Little Love for Bryan??

As the long, languid days of July drag on towards what seems like a never-ending close, my thoughts have drifted recently to that of Bryan Little and his ongoing contract negotiations. Little, who is a restricted free-agent without arbitration rights, is (Credit: Kevin Cox, Getty Images) only 22 years old and coming off a very disappointing 2009-10 campaign. Little was stricken by the dreaded, and over-hyped, "sophomore slump." But the way I see it is that Bryan simply had a bad year, not much different from the Thrashers as a team each and every time they donned the not-so-burgundy Thursday night duds in "Blueland" last season. Little should have no problem bouncing back to the 20-goal plateau, at the very least, with a "normal" season in which his shooting percentage remains right around his career average of 12%.

At any rate, I've been thinking a lot about Bryan's struggles last season in light of the fact we should be receiving word any day now about a (hopefully) long-term contract extension for the Thrashers pivot-man turned winger. Last season, Bryan's production took a dip similar to that of an aging vet whose skills have deserted him. After eclipsing the 30-goal mark in just his first 82-game season, Little was not hardly tickled by his inability to dent the twine behind enemy netminders. While his shot totals were on par with that of his previous season, his shooting percentage dropped deeper than the mercury on a late autumn day in Cambridge, Ontario.

Recently, a couple of players, who possess a similar skill-set, have settled on contract terms in favor of arbitration hearings that could yield more ill-will in the short-run than actual analytic accuracy. To wit: now former Thrasher, Clarke MacArthur, a slightly older and arguably less talented player than Little, received an unexpectedly large arbitration award of $2.4 M. Unfortunatley for the "General" -- about as inapt a nickname as there ever was -- the Thrashers said "no thanks" and let him skate away as an unrestricted free-agent. Surely Bryan's astute agent took note of this and a few other contracts finalized in recent days.

On Monday, speedy Canucks' forward Mason Raymond -- he should be "The Attorney" if Todd White is "The Accountant" and Slava Kozlov "The Professor" -- plea-bargained his way around arbitration by agreeing to a 2-year deal worth a total of $5.1 M. Raymond managed to capitalize on his surging production of a year ago, in which he potted 25 goals after only 11 the year before. In addition, New York Islanders' winger, Matt Moulson, the most surprising recent entrant into the 30-goal scorer's club, made out like a finance major from Cornell -- his alma mater -- on Wall Street with a one-year deal worth $2.45 M. Strangely, GM Garth Snow opted to let him attempt to build on his success and inflate his value even more by not locking him up for several years. Perhaps Snow has less faith in him than their reward of $2.45 M shows!?

So what does this mean for a player like Bryan Little, who has shown as many flashes of brilliance as flame-outs when it comes to scoring the puck in his short career? It's hard to say because the Thrashers are not exactly known for tipping their hand in any negotiation not involving Ilya Kovalchuk. Certainly Bryan's agent will come to the negotiating table with a hi-lite reel of Little's best goals, most of which were scored in high-traffic areas -- not easy for a kid of his relatively small stature -- during the 2008-09 season. During that season, Bryan Little's hands and ability to pop the puck home made us think he might be the next Peter Bondra. However, in 2009-10, Little's production was more reminiscent of Pascal Dupuis.

But hopefully for Little, his agent can prove that the value of his character, work-ethic and class as an individual are worth as much as his hockey skill and potential. Without a doubt Bryan busts his tail on every shift and he rarely leaves the ice with his full VO2 lung capacity intact. His hustle and willingness to back-check relentlessly will surely win him some points with GM Rick Dudley. In my opinion, it would behoove the Thrashers' brass to lock up Bryan for at least three years so the total dollars aren't quite as high as they might be in an arbitration situation. If Clarke MacArthur, who has never scored more than 17 goals in a season, can "earn" $2.4 M, and Mason Raymond and Matt Moulson, who are very comparable in terms of accomplishments as young players, can both command in upwards of $2.4 M, then doesn't it stand to reason that Bryan Little is worth at least $2.5 or even $2.6 M per season for 3 years?

Today I'm Feelin' Daffy...Say, Let's Bring Back Billy Jaffe!!

Yeah, because he's a bad-ass color commentator who was a splendid complementary piece to Dan Kamal on Thrashers' radio broadcasts way back in the day. But then again, I doubt he wants to go back to radio. I would not be surprised if Versus chooses to give Jaffe platoon duty with Bill Patrick on their studio show to exchange barbs with Jonesy and Engblom. Anyway, per usual, the Islanders make yet another daffy decision...it is just so Wang (that's 'wrong' in Chinese of course) to do Billy like that. No doubt B. Jaffe will land on his feet.

Zetterberg's Zany Wedding...Silly Swedes!!

Okay, not gonna spend a whole lot of time writing about anything today -- well, maybe later I'll delve into the controversial debate surrounding Atlanta's Goal Deficit Problem (copyright: Bill Tiller of Iceman Bloggeth fame over at AJC) that was comically lambasted in a sad, tragic way by one of the contributors at Bird Watcher's Anonymous -- but I did want to bring you this heaping helping of meaty Swedish weirdness compliments of Greg Wyshynski's Puck Daddy blog over at yahoo.com. Peruse as you may but be forewarned, it may damage your eyes.

Lastly, can somebody call Zetts and find out if the wedding was officiated by Charlie Chaplain?

Ba-dump-bum. Please tip your waitresses with fashionable intemperance! Thank you!

Summer Doldrums Interrupted with News

The Atlanta summer, which has been brutally and relentlessly hot and humid, drags on and on and on, while my will to blog was seemingly squelched by the maddeningly protracted madness of the ongoing Ilya Kovalchuk scandal / saga. Just when you thought there was no hope of anything remotely resembling Thrashers news to emanate forth from the internets, Chris Vivlamore of the AJC gazed into the future to give us this tantalizting tidbit about the recent arbitration hearing with winger Clarke MacArthur. And then today, more news!! Hark the announcement about Ondrej Pavelec blaring forth like the annoying drone of a vuvuzela!!

In summary, here is a bullet-point listing of the newsworthy developments down at Thrashers HQ on Marietta Street:

1) GM Rick Dudley rendered, a bit prematurely I might add, the decision to let Clarke MacArthur go the way of free-agency by opting to "walk away" from an arbitration ruling that mystified the masses. Somehow, the arbiter ascertained that MacArthur's 35 point, -16 performance of a year ago was worth a dizzying sum of $2.4 M. Best of luck to Clarke (the 'e' is silent) in his attempt to earn $1.5 M on the open market, let alone $2.4 M!

2) As reported by a Czech news outlet known as iDNES.cz, goalie Ondrej Pavelec agreed to terms on a two-year contract that will pay him a total sum of $2.3 M, not per year, but total. While the terms have been finalized, as confirmed by the tweet of his agent Allan Walsh, the deal hasn't actually been signed nor filed to the NHL's Central Registry. If you ask me, this is a wonderful deal for the Thrashers' brass as OP has yet to prove that he possesses the necessary mettle to man the crease as a starter for the Thrashers.

Hopefully, the stream of news will continue to strengthen as we head into the weekend and early next week as Dudley should be closing in on finalizing deals to re-new the contracts of restricted free-agents Bryan Little, Nicklas Bergfors, Ben Eager and Andrew Ladd. The former Hawks, Eager and Ladd, both have arbitration hearings scheduled in the coming 10 days, but it is rather doubtful either of the hearings will actually occur as the Thrashers have a very proven track record of avoiding such non-sense and coming to terms with their RFA's.

The MacArthur decision was an isolated and calculated move that speaks to their intent of allowing young players such as Patrice Cormier, Fredrik Pettersson (acquired as a free-agent from the Swedish Elite League) and Spencer Machacek every opportunity to earn a job out of training camp this fall -- a shrewd approach in my humble opinion. Thusly, I doubt we have anything to worry about with respect to our other pending RFA's. We shall find out soon enough what their new deals entail. In the meantime, check out Kukla's Korner for a couple of blog write-ups involving the Thrashers. One features our entertaining GM while the other provides a thorough summary of the possible rationale behind Clark MacArthur decision.

Why's It So Damned Hot Outside??!

Because the man they call "Torch" has just arrived in the ATL! Well, Duluth actually. He's chillin' with his new future pupils at the Duluth Ice Forum -- right now, as I type this -- as the newest coach for the Atlanta Thrasher, um, I mean Thrash-hawks. Oh yes, this time it's true!

Today, the Thrashers finally got their (other) man. Chris Vivlamore from the AJC reports that John Torchetti (pictured above left), now the former assistant coach of the Stanley Cup champion Chicago Blackhawks, was officially named Associate Head Coach of the Atlanta Thrashers.

So.....you know what to do! Light 'em if you got 'em!


Or just TORCH IT, MAN, TORCH IT!!

I reckon it's just a matter of time before GM Rick Dudley rounds out his coaching staff with the addition of one final assistant -- think Steve Ludzik or Bill Peters -- as well as a much-needed goalie coach. It would thrill me to no end if the Thrashers were to hire former Devils / Rangers / Canes' netminder, Kevin Weekes, who has played on Dudley-managed teams on two separate occasions. In fact, Dudley once traded to get Kevin Weekes to be his starting goalie as GM of the Tampa Bay Lightning back in the year 2000.

Sloooooow News Week Gives Way to WTF??

So, you come within two wins of capturing your first Stanley Cup since 1975? Your team's history of goalie development has been less than stellar since the retirement of Ron Hextall in the late 90's. Goaltending has been the apparent Achilles' Heel of your franchise for the better part of three seasons. You flirt with the idea of signing Marty Turco or Evgeny Nabakov only to re-sign the journeyman goalie, Michael Leighton, who actually played pretty well for you during your spoiled Stanley Cup playoff run. So what do you do in the off-season to address your goaltending concerns? Why, you sign much-maligned winger-in-exile, Nikolai Zherdev, to return from Russia and seemingly replace clutch playoffs goal-scorer Simon Gagne! BIEN SUR!!

OH MON DIEU!! VRAIMENT?!

From the all-knowing twitter machine:

dchesnokov says: "The Flyers confirm Zherdev is close to signing with the team, as I reported yesterday."

In other news, the tragically protracted and desperate attempt by Ilya Kovalchuk's agent, Jay Grossman, to extort mega-millions from the L.A. Kings has finally come to a fitting and logical conclusion in which Kings' GM, Dean Lombardi, issues an emphatic "nyet".

News Can't Hide from the Twitter Machine!!

Hark! Behold! Honest to goodness Thrashers news!

Yes, reported just 22 minutes ago, and while I was snacking on a Jimmy Dean sausage, egg and cheese bagel, Eric Boulton's employment was renewed for another year at $650,000 per annum. Thanks be to the hard-working Chris Vivlamore of the Atlanta Journal, who always seems to log the late hours to bring you the latest. Believe 'dat!

Also, that Russian sniper feller, Ilya Ko-VAL-chook, still hasn't chosen a new home, so let the speculation continue! Where in the world will the erstwhile Thrasher end up?

JUICY TIDBIT: Eric Boulton, who completed a round-about 5-year tour through 7 different minor league towns during the late 90's -- much like a journeyman baseball player does -- once toiled for 34 games as a member of the Kentucky Thoroughblades

(a name that is thoroughly corny).

Whilst in Lexington, Boultsy enjoyed the camaraderie of hockey heroes such as Evgeny Nabakov, Filip Kuba, Andy Sutton and even Herbie Vasiljevs, the former Thrasher who appeared in the Olympics for the maroon and white-clad Latvians in February. Eric Boulton's career would make for a very romantic tale of relentless determination and staunch stick-to-it-ive-ness, wouldn't it?

Day 2: We Say Farewell to Enstrom's Bodyguard

At first blush, I’m disappointed to learn that we weren’t “able” to sign Kubina. Making matters worse of course is the fact he signed with another team in the division — can’t really blame him for returning “home” where he’s spent the majority of his career. However, it isn’t a matter of not being “able”, it's more a matter of not being WILLING — willing to spend that kind of money on a player who could potentially block the growth and maturity of younger players like Bogosian, Kulda and even Valabik.

If you’re going to commit to your younger players, at some point you have to make opportunity cost decisions that will help you not only in the short run, but also longer-term. Bogosian is only 19. The ASG, well Dudley and Co., are banking on Bogo as their franchise D-man for years to come. In order to achieve his potential, he must be given at least Top 4 minutes. And if they are right, we will have to pay him mad bank next summer at the end of his entry-level contract.

With Kubina in the fold, the demand for minutes is greater than what’s available. Oduya, Hainsey and Enstrom can all log a lot of minutes and they can fully expect to play 20-22 mins apiece. But it’s Bogo that will be expected to bear the brunt of the load due to his ability to score and potential as a pre-eminent PP QB. If Kubina is on the team, that cuts adversely into Bogo’s minutes as a PP presence. While Bogo may not always play against the other team’s top lines, we must accept that Duds sees him as the guy who will log the majority of PP mins as well as his fair share on the PK.

I will miss Kuby. I think he’s a class act and good for any locker room thanks to his quiet, steady leadership, sometimes vocal, but mostly by example. But with every loss comes opportunity and it’s time to invest in our young guys and the potential they possess. Kulda showed he’s ready and he will need 12-16 mins per game to develop effectively. And a healthy Valabik can log heavy minutes on the PK unit as well as help anchor the bottom pairing should Kulda struggle at times.

Kuby, we hate to see you go, but the future is now. And we still need a few mill for another veteran forward who can pot 20 goals. I don’t think we’re done — and our cap number is still right around $44 – 45 M depending on the RFA deals — as Dudley said on 680 the Fan “no, I don’t think we’re done” (his exact response to Kincade’s question) when asked about additional moves. While I think he would prefer a sensible trade — cuz that’s what he does! — I’m not so sure we won’t sign a veteran winger for $1.75 – 2.25 M if the fit is right.

Celebrating Canada Day in the U.S.....

....by not working bitches!! Yeeee ahhhhhh!! What?

Okay, not exactly. I'm actually crunching some revenue figures in MS Access as we speak / type / tweet "Hosannah in the Highest" -- in a hockey sense of course -- but my mind is tingling with anticipation as we draw ever-close to the opening bell of the free-agency fantasmo (yeah, just made that up) slated to begin at 12:01 EST...SHARP! Not Patrick Sharp, but Andrew Ladd may be next up for the trade-block and your Atlanta Thrashers are reportedly interested, according to one of countless tweets oozing forth from the cyber-world of hyperbolic fantasy. But alas, this rumor isn't so far-fetched as the Thrashers have some cash to throw away and the Blackhawks cap is, well, to put it succinctly, fucked.

Other rumors of note include RFA talks breaking down between Montreal and Dan Ellis, Zbynek Michalek pondering his final offer from the 'Yotes and Calgary clearning mad cap space for an "afternoon" presser that is supposed to begin at 8 am MT...huh? See how crazy this shit is? It's gonna get worse before the dust settles and we wake from our daze to find that we've been stupid enough to sign old and decrepit Pavol Demitra and his buddy Martin "don't call me Sea-bass" Cibak from Slovakia. What? It could happen!! Stay tuned (as if anyone's reading this tripe!) and I'll keep you posted on what actually happens for realz yo' post apocalyptic noon...today, Thursday the 1st of July, the Day of Hockey Reckoning. Peace...for now!