Tuesday, October 5, 2010

The Good, The Bad & The Ugly...A Pre-season Tale of Woe

Today I had some idle time on my hands so I took a closer look at the last 5 pre-season games and put together some "stat-shots" (all rights reserved) to illustrate what was good, what was bad, and what was just plain ugly during the fortnight of practice hockey played by the Atlanta Thrashers. Read earnestly, then weep (to quote the sagacious and omniscient Mortimer Peacock) unconsolably into your Haagen-Daz ice-cream.

THE UGLY:

-- it doesn't take hours of analysis for me to tell you that the Thrashers were quite woeful when it came to putting the puck in the net; the ugliest stat by far, aside from the worrisome 0 - 5 - 1 wins and losses record, was the number of goals (NOT) scored by the Thrash. In the final 5 games, the T-birds could only muster 8 goals total (an average of 1.6 per game) thanks to a dismal shooting percentage of 5.5%.

-- dovetailing with the overall lack of production presented above is the fact the Thrashers' forwards could only dent the twine 5 times out of the 8 goals they scored in 5 games; worse yet (well, it may bode well for our lower-line depth) is the fact that only 1 goal was scored by a returning key offensive cog from last season (Antropov). The quartet of Little, Peverley, Kane and Bergfors contributed all of 4 assists in the 5 games.

-- individually, the performances of two players were particularly galling and worrisome: that of defenseman Ron Hainsey (-3 in 3 games or -5 if you include the first game versus Columbus at home, but I didn't), who simply exhibited a general lack of timing, quickness and overall effectiveness no matter whom he was paired with, and Niclas Bergfors (0 points, 11 SOG and a -3 in 4 games played), who seemed to be out of sorts and just plain uninspired by all accounts. In his defense, Niclas played with different linemates every game, but the fact that he couldn't cash in at least one of his 11 SOG is more than a tad troubling.

THE BAD:

-- as a team, the Thrashers did not have much luck on the limited power play opportunities they had during the exhibition season; only 2 of 13 PP chances were converted into goals over the final 5 games. Nigel Dawes tapped home a rebound on the team's first and only PP opportunity in their rematch with Nashville at Philips and Toby Enstrom found a lane into the back of the net for a PP marker in the final contest of the pre-season against the Blue Jackets.

-- although the team experienced a good deal of success in the face-off circle on home ice (thanks in large part to the clutch-ness of Rich Peverley who was a net +10 on F/O draws in 5 games), the team struggled mightily in the circle when match-ups were dictated by the opponent. Specifically, the Thrashers' puck possession suffered due to a disparity of -18 in F/O won; in large part this was on account of Chris Thorburn (38%) and Alex Burmistrov (15 of 35), who obviously struggled against other team's top centers.

-- despite a very strong effort in his Atlanta debut in which he allowed only 1 goal on 29 shots, veteran goalie Chris Mason seemed to struggle at times in his other 2 games; he was the victim of some tough luck on the PP against Nashville, but he was certainly not his sharpest in Columbus as he only managed to stop 25 of the 29 shots that found their way to his equipment. In all, Mason gave up 9 goals on 88 shots faced, a save percentage of only .898; if this team is to make some noise this year, Mason will need to maintain a SV% of at least .910.

THE GOOD (yes, there was some good!):

-- first and foremost, the Thrashers demonstrated a superior penchant, as well as the requisite courage, to block an astounding 82 shots over 5 games for an average of 16.4 per game. As far as I know, this is unprecedented in Thrashers history; in my recollection the Thrash were lucky to average 8 - 10 blocked shots per game. Perhaps the tutelage of Craig Ramsay, coupled with the addition of the savvy veteran, Brent Sopel, has made a profound impact on the defensive unit as a whole. Lastly, just for comparison, the opponent blocked a mere 50 shots in those 5 games.

-- while the above juxtaposition of blocked shots totals may lead you to believe that the team was guilty of giving up a lot more shots than taken, the shot disparity was not really all that great. Of course, we've become very accustomed to seeing the Thrashers not only get out-shot, but out-shot badly and negative Corsi ratings have become commonplace. However, during the pre-season, the Thrashers attempted a total of 258 shots in 5 games (51.6) versus a total of 275 shots launched by the opponents (55.0); the Thrashers missed the net 63 times (19 more than their opponents) compared to 44 errant shots by the enemy. Lastly, the SOG counter showed a mere 4-shot disparity for the Thrashers (145 vs 149) over 5 games and Atlanta actually out-shot their opponent 3 times.

-- finally, and continuing with the topic of shots on goal, the Thrashers demonstrated a better overall commitment to defense, both on the blueline and as a 5-man unit; twice the Thrashers held their opponent to less than 30 SOG and the highest number yielded in any of the 5 games was 31, a far cry from the average number allowed last season (close to 33 per game).

Additional Commentary: Not only was the team's defensive cohesion evident on the shot counter, but it was also quite obvious to the naked eye. In the two games I attended, I noticed a markedly different approach to the game and a better (and more aggressive) overall effort to play both ends of the ice. The forwards were getting deeper into the defensive zone for support of the D while the gaps between the blueline and forwards were much smaller -- several times I thought to myself how refreshing it was to see the 5-man unit moving up and down the sheet of ice like an amorphous "amoeba". There is no doubt in my mind that Ramsay's teachings are already taking root for collection of young players, who are mostly under the age of 28. And the statistics in the pre-season bear this out. To wit:

1) average shots on goal allowed were less than 30 at 29.8 per game 2) total blocked shots of 82 (25 by forwards) 3) only 9 even-strength goals allowed (1.80 per game) 4) 103 hits delivered for an average of 20.6 per game and 5) only 1 game on the road in which they allowed more than 3 goals (CBJ).

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