Thrashers By the Numbers...Eight Is...Not Enough?

Originally, I was going to break down the play of the Thrashers in a series of nine 9-game increments (or eight 9-game increments plus one 10-game increment at the end of the season since there are 82 games in all), but since there is a convenient 96-hour break in between games, I figured now is as good a time as any to look at some numbers and provide a little bit of analysis, for what it's worth. Unfortunately, a statistical break-down such as this is limited in its usefulness since the sample size is so small and the early-season kinks of a new system are still being ironed out. However, we CAN juxtapose these numbers with the first 8 games of the 2008-'09 season, which marked the beginning of the John Anderson reign of horror. Beyond that comparison, the numbers provided below will only state the obvious: that the Thrashers' and their coaches have A LOT of work to do to make this team a bonafide contender in the Eastern Conference.

STAT Category ________ 2010-'11 Season _______ 2008-'09 Season

Record thru 8 Gms ________ 3 -- 4 -- 1 OTL ________ 2 -- 4 -- 2 OTL

Goal Differential __________ (-6, 23 vs 29) _________ (-4, 23 GF vs 27 GA)

SOG Differential _________ (-67, 234 vs 301) ________ (-40, 250 vs 290)

Average Shots Diff. _______ (-8.1, 29.3 v 37.4) ________ (-5.0, 31.3 vs. 36.3)

# Times Out-shot ________ (7 times , even 1x) _______ (7 times, even 1x)

Shooting Perctge. _________ 9.40% (22 goals) ________ 8.80% (on 22 goals)

Save Percentage _________ .909 (adj for ENG) ________ .907 (zero ENGA)

As you can see from the presentation above, there are some eerie similiarities between that miserable season 2 years ago and the start of this one under Coach Craig Ramsay. That's not to say that this current team won't improve as the season unfolds; Anderson's team played much better in the second half of the season after the early January acquisition of Rich Peverley off of waivers. JA's crew rallied from ten games under .500 to win 21 of its last 39 games to finish 35 - 41 - 6 overall. Hopefully, Craig Ramsay's system will prove to be much more effective over time so the Thrashers not only compete hard on a nightly basis, but also give themselves a chance to win most games.

The biggest difference for this current iteration of Thrashers' teams is the sheer number of new players from last year to this one. Of the current 22-man roster, only 13 players return from last season. And of those thirteen, two of them -- Johnny Oduya and Nicklas Bergfors -- have a mere 38 games under their belts as Thrashers. So essentially, Ramsay is faced with the daunting task of trying to meld 11 new faces with 11 "old" ones into a single cohesive unit. In addition, Ramsay, unlike Anderson, did not have the luxury of coaching any of the younger Thrash players in the minors as a coach for the AHL affiliate in Chicago. But regardless, the transition to a new coach and new system is always met with its fair share of hiccups. Unfortunately for the 2010-'11 Thrashers, the first 8 games has been marred by a recurring case of acid reflux!!

For example, the Thrashers have yet to finish a game with more shots registered on goal than their opponent. The closest they have come was on Opening Night when their 31 SOG matched that of a befuddled and somewhat sluggish Washington Capitals team. Moreover, out of 24 full periods of action, the Thrashers have failed to record more shots on goal than allowed in fifteen of them. And in those 15 periods, they were out-shot by a whopping 94 SOG!! That number jumps to 100 if you include the 6 shots to zero O.T. domination imposed on them by the Capitals this past Saturday. No matter how you slice it, the Thrashers can ill-afford to get out-shot by an average of more than 6 SOG in 2/3 of the periods they play. Overall, they are giving up an average of almost 2.75 more shots than they are landing on net themselves.

Of course, in order for things to improve, the coaching staff must figure out a way to make this team gel not only defensively, but also on offense. Through 8 games, the forward line combinations have been jumbled like ping-pong balls in the NHL Draft lottery hopper. There have been some flashes of offensive cohesion on a couple of lines, but for the most part, results have been spotty at best. As a result, this general lack of chemistry and cohesion on offense has been leading to more zone time for the other team in the Thrashers' defensive zone. To reverse the startling trend of a lopsided shots-on-goal tally, the Thrashers must improve defensive zone break-outs and take better care of the puck when attempting to clear it out of the zone.

When the puck is in their zone, they must demonstrate a more aggressive pursuit of the puck to prevent the seemingly harmless perimeter shot. Afterall, the more pucks that get to your netminder, the more bad things that can result at the goal crease. Hopefully, a more aggressive mindset inside the defensive zone will develop over time as the players' confidence within the new system framework grows to match and complement the already improved commitment to blocking shots and clogging passing lanes. But no matter how well their goaltenders play, the Thrashers will have a hard time winning more games than not if they don't learn how to be stingier in preventing the number of pucks that are fired toward their net.

In simplest terms, Coach Ramsay's philosophy begins and ends with controlling the puck and occupying the other team's zone more than they occupy your own. Thusly, he is working to to re-program his player's mental approaches and habits so that they keep their shifts short and tidy with crisp line changes to hopefully maintain a cycle of fresh legs on the ice. Too often a line is getting trapped in the defensive end after an unsuccessful rush in the offensive zone or a poor clearing pass inside their own blueline. Ramsay is trying implement a system in which all 4 lines play nearly the same amount of time at even strength to keep the other team off balance and exploit teams that may rely more heavily on only 3 lines. So far, his efforts have been met with mixed results and the next 20 games or so will surely test his coaching mettle and resolve.