Election Day!! YOU Decide: "Winning" Record or Statistical Anomaly??

Okay folks, November -- excusez-moi, I mean MO'vember!! -- is here for your Atlanta Thrashers, who recently wrapped up a "winning" month with a 4 to 3 shoot-out loss to the St. Louis Blues last Saturday. Of course, wrapping up a winning month with a loss, even a shoot-out loss, seems to ring hollow when the team collapsed trying to hold a 2-goal lead deep into the third period of that game. Anyway, the Thrashers' record of 5 - 4 - 2 (0r points-earned percentage of .545) is probably above the expectation level of most reasonable, level-headed, discerning fans. But the puzzling Jekyll & Hyde personality of this new-look Thrashers team begs the following question: was October really a successful month or was it just an intriguing collection of statistical anomalies?

In order to decide, let's take a look at some key statistics for the first 11 games of the season. First and foremost, the Thrashers have scored a total of 36 goals thus far while giving up a total of 40, before adjusting for shoot-out and empty-net goals. After adjusting for such, the Thrashers have popped in 34 goals (avg of 3.1) compared to 37 (avg of 3.4) for their opponents. At even strength, the disparity is a bit more frightening as the Thrashers have surrendered a total of 28 goals at even-strength while only potting 20 of their own in either 5 on 5 or 4 on 4 situations. Luckily, for the T-birds, the power-play has been a refreshing surprise source of production as they have netted a total of 13 PP goals to only 9 for their opponents. In fact, the Thrashers have not yielded a PPG to their opponent in 4 straight games, outscoring them 6 to 0 with the man-advantage. Not so coincidentally, the Thrashers have garnered 6 of a possible 8 points in that 4-game stretch. Had they been able to take advantage of at least one 5 vs 3 PP in the early 3rd period Saturday nite, we would be talking about a 6 - 4 - 1 record instead.

Unfortunately, the ES goals disparity is a direct reflection of a more pressing problem the Thrashers are having in the early going of the 2010-11 season. The Thrashers have not been able to limit their opponents to less than an average of 35.5 shots (on goal) per game while only averaging a surprisingly low 28.1 shots on goal of their own. So considering that peculiar statistical anomaly, the Thrashers are very lucky to have a "winning" record for the month of October. Of course, their production with the extra man has been one of the primary reasons they've been able to stay in most games and win their share. Certainly, if you take away the two Tampa Bay debacles, in which Tampa's potent PP exploited the Thrashers' 'D' for 4 PP goals, it would seem as though the PP is the only reason they've been winning some games. But that's a bit misleading as the Thrash have managed to post a record of 3 - 2 - 0 in games in which the PPG tally has been even. Two of those three wins were impressive wins over perennial playoff teams, Washington and San Jose, which was a tough road contest on the back end of a back-to-back during their west coast swing.

The most telling stats when it comes to the Thrashers' up and down October are those of goalie Chris Mason, who has probably felt like the victim of some masochistic torture as Atlanta's netminder. Pressed into full-time duty because of the mysterious fainting spell that felled teammate and number-one goalie (in name) Ondrej Pavelec, Mason has had a rough start to the season. Somewhat of a slow starter historically, Mason has seen more rubber than, well, I won't go there in the interest of good taste. But Mason has seen a gaudy barrage of pucks that would make any goalie wanna faint from fatigue. Thus far, Mason has seen a total of 339 (nearly 36 per game) shots come his way with 306 hitting some part of his goalie paraphenalia. To Mason's dissatisfaction, 33 of those shots have eluded his attempt to stop them. Most any goalie, outside of the red-hot Tim Thomas in Boston perhaps, would be hard-pressed to stop more than 91% of those shots -- especially when you factor in some of the dreadful defensive turnovers occurring in front of him -- and Mason can't really shoulder the majority of the blame for his somewhat lackluster .903 save percentage. And while Mason may not have fainted yet during a game, he's probably felt weak-kneed and woozy at the sight of his horrific 3.50 goals against average.

Lastly, the Thrashers, despite their inability to keep pucks out of their net on a consistent basis, have certainly made strides defensively as a more cohesive unit on the ice. To wit: their impressive blocked-shots average of 17.1 per game, which is probably in the top 3 or 4 in the entire NHL. The defensive struggles have stemmed more from indecision and poor passing inside their own zone when trying to break-out into the neutral zone. Once Coach Ramsay's teachings take root (we hope!) and they iron out some of the kinks in their break-out plays, I think the Thrashers will enjoy a steady decline in not only the number of shots that get to their net, but also the number of quality chances faced by their goalies. Recently over the last three games, we've seen a drop in the number of shots making it to their net: an average of only 28.67 per game if you factor out the shots allowed in the overtime frames. If that trend continues, and the blueline can improve on their communication and efficiency with which the puck is moved out of the zone, then perhaps we will witness a meaningful improvement in the number of goals allowed -- the one stat that means everything. Over the course of 71 games (the number left this season), an average of 29 shots against means a GAA of closer to 2.60 (using a rough average of .910 for the SV%) as opposed to 3.50. Even an improvement to the GAA neighborhood of 2.70-2.80 might just be enough for a taste of the post-season this year. Is that asking too much of this team or is that a realistic goal for Coach Ramsay and his charges? You DECIDE!