Does Tonite's Game in South Florida Count as a "Must-Win"?

Perhaps one of the most overused phrases in sports is that of "must-win". Just ask Arnold Schwarzenegger's character, Ben Richards, in the movie The Running Man about what must-win really means.

At any rate, a quick glance at the current Eastern Conference standings delivers the sobering reality that faces your Atlanta Thrashers tonite. To keep pace with the teams not only above them, but also near them in the standings, they must take advantage of the chance to earn two points against a team they've beaten twice already this year.

And when you factor in the fact that the N.Y. Islanders, currently in the 8th spot just fractional percentage points ahead of Montreal, and the Ottawa Senators have caught fire of late, then you realize just how important a game against the Panthers, who sit just one point below the Thrashers in 11th becomes. Not to mention the fact that one of Florida's best players, Stephen Weiss, will not suit up and play tonite in Sunrise, FL. But the Thrashers have found some much-needed chemistry with their new line combinations and have seem re-focused and resolute in their last three outings since getting absolutely demolished by the Washington Capitals on January 9th.

The best analogy I can think of for this time of year in the long journey of attrition that is the 82-game NHL schedule is that of "moving day" at a golf tournament (the 3rd or Saturday round). On "moving day", players who are within 7 or 8 strokes of the lead go for broke and try to shoot themselves into contention for victory on Sunday. By the time March rolls around, it is much harder to make up ground on teams that are ahead of you in the standings. For the Thrashers, the stretch of games between now and February 13th (last day of games before the Olympic Games hiatus) is their "moving day". There are 13 games left before the 2-week Winter Games "holiday" and it would behoove the Thrashers to win 65-70% of these games, most of which are against teams below or near them in the standings.

7 of the next 13 games are against teams between 10th and 15th in the Eastern Conference including games versus Carolina, whom they just beat 5 to 3 on Saturday, Toronto tomorrow and Florida tonite. And 5 of the other 6 teams are in the Western Conference, thus giving the Thrashers a chance to earn "free" points by beating teams that aren't chasing them in their respective conference. Luckily, the Thrashers have won 6 of the 10 games they've played already against Western Conference competition. If they can earn 6 or 7 points in those five games against Western Conference teams, the Thrashers will be in much better position on "Sunday" to earn a Top 8 finish in the regular season tournament.

Going a step further, the Thrashers will need at least 42 of the remaining 70 points (60%) available to them in order to have a shot at the 8th seed in the conference. Using history as a guide, 90 to 93 points will probably earn you either 7th or 8th depending on the year. As poorly as the team played in December, the luck of the schedule draw, along with a home-heavy slate of games in March, may combine to help the Thrashers gain a playoff berth. Take a look at the games they have remaining against teams who presently hold 10 of the 11 bottom spots in the standings:

# 5) Boston - 1 road contest left
# 6) Ottawa - 1 home game left
# 7) NY Rangers - 1 home game
# 8) NY Islanders - 1 home game
# 9) Montreal - 0 games remaining
#10) Philly - 3 games left (1 H & 2 A)
#11) Atlanta - 49 points in 47 games
#12) Florida - 3 games left (2 H & 1 A)
#13) Tampa - 3 games left (1 H & 2 A)
#14) Toronto - 3 games left (2 H & 1 A)
#15) Carolina - 4 games left (3 H & 1 A)

That is a total of 20 games, out of 35 remaining, against teams who are either below them in the standings (13 gms) or within reach (5 points or less). There are only 8 points separating 5th place Boston from 13th place Tampa in the standings. Fortunately, the Thrashers have games in hand on several teams including 1 on Boston, 3 on Ottawa, 2 on the Rangers, 1 on the Isles and 3 on the Montreal Canadiens, against whom the Thrashers earned a very valuable 6 of 11 (due to OTL points) points in the standings.

So now is the time for the Thrashers to stockpile points in a 4-week stretch of "must-win" games. If they are only able to scrape their way to a near .500 record or fade even further as a result of another agonizingly long losing streak, then the Thrashers might as well be considered "dead on arrival" when post-Olympics play resumes on March 2nd.