One Down...And Only a Dozen to Go!!

AUTHOR'S NOTE: THIS ENTRY IS THE CONTINUATION OF THE JANUARY 4TH ENTRY

For those of you who know a little about theology, you know that today (1/6) is a special day in the official Church calendar. If you're a little unsure of what I'm talking about, just think 'wise men' and 'frankincense' and 'myrh'. Yes, that's right! Today is the day of Epiphany or the day on which the three suspected wise-men (or Biblical Magi as the hip theologians like to say) arrived in Bethlehem to bestow their assorted gifts upon Mary, Joseph and their little baby Jesus.

Who will be the Thrashers next savior??

What does that have anything to do with hockey you ask? Well, nothing really. Unless the three "wisest" men of the Thrashers, GM Don Waddell, Associate GM Rick Dudley and Coach John Anderson put their heads together today and figured out a way to break a 9-game losing streak. As far as this blog writer is concerned, the great epiphany in this instance is the sobering discovery that the Thrashers pretty much suck. Well, there's that...AND the realization that the Thrashers are in all likelihood NOT a playoff-caliber team. UNLESS of course they can figure out a way to avoid losing more than 12 games the rest of the way. So in essence, the Thrashers "magic" number has been revealed to this "wise ass", if you beg my pardon, after much deep instrospection and a bit of number-crunching savoir-faire.

After a hope-crushing 5 to 2 loss to a very ordinary (and fatigued) looking Pittsburgh Penguins team last night, I decided that I would need to take a different mental approach to the remainder of the Thrashers' season -- one of analytical assessment, if you will. Afterall, with 23 more home games to attend between now and April 10th, how else will I survive the mental strain and emotional strife the Thrashers like to bestow upon me? But before I delve into how many wins and points they will need for any realistic shot of a playoff run – mind you, this assumes that Kovy stays the rest of the season and keeps doing his usual goal-scoring thang – I will first provide some analytics.

First and foremost, how in the world will this team find a way to win not only now, but in the long-run? Short and simple: CUT DOWN THE NUMBER OF SHOTS!! PERIOD!! Over the course of a long season, accummulated shots mean more and more. Sure, Moose may occasionally stand on his head for a couple of games stopping 95% of 80 shots faced, but that is the anomaly, not the rule. The more shots our net-minders face, the more likely, and the sooner, they will break down. I don’t think many will argue that causal relationship, at least not in the Thrashers’ case.

To date, through 42 games, the Thrashers have allowed 1,427 shots to find their way to their goalies' equipment or goal. So far, Thrashers' goalies have stopped 90.7% of these shots yielding 133 goals (not including empty netters) for a GAA average of 3.17, which is now slightly higher than the rate at which this team scores goals (3.15). In order to have any chance of winning 60% (needed for 90+ points) of the available remaining points, the Thrashers must cut down the average number of shots on goal to about 32 shots per game, assuming a save percentage of .905. But that also assumes an offensive shot percentage that exceeds 10.25% to ensure they score enough goals on their average of 29 shots per game.

As you can see, the Thrashers will have very little margin of error when it comes to their team defense going forward unless Kari Lehtonen returns to the nets and dazzles us with a save percentage of .915 or higher for a couple of months time. At an average of .915, the Thrashers could probably afford to give up an average of 33 SOG the rest of the way. Basically, every 10 basis points affords them the luxury of giving up an additonal 1 shot on goal per game over 40 games. But that is too risky since there is always a chance the shooting percentage falls off its current rate of 10.85 and drops below 10% for the season. Since every shot against they save, on average, helps drop the total number of goals allowed by 3 to 4, shoring up team defense is the best way to ensure that your goalies save more than 91.5% of their shots over a 40-game stretch.

Is the above a bit complicated? It most certainly is without the aid of an Excel spreadsheet and some patience. But I have run the numbers in a nifty chart comparing Shots For with Shots Against, and I can assure you that reducing the number of shots to an average that is closer to 30 / game (as opposed to 34) is necessary for the Thrashers to end up with a positive goal differential and more wins. Will it get them to the needed total of 40 or so wins for the season?? Only time will tell. But statistically speaking, this Thrasher team has produced enough evidence over a 25 game stretch to show that such a win total is attainable.

But how many points are enough?

The number of points needed is open to debate, but 90 is probably the bare minimum needed to earn the # 8 seed. In this particular season, 88 or 89 might just get it done since none of the teams below the Top 5 in the Eastern Conference are without their flaws. And none of them have earned points at a pace higher than 56%. So there is still some hope for the Thrashers, who earned points at a 65% clip for the first 24 games of the season. But time is running out. The Thrashers must start winning NOW, as in tomorrow against the Rangers. And then again, on Saturday, against the Capitals. Now is the time as the next 4 games, and 6 of the next 8, are played in the cozy confines of Philips Arena.

Personally I'm not sure if the Thrashers can do it. If you had asked me at Thanksgiving, I would have said emphatically "hell yeah", and even after the early December road-trip swoon I might have said "yeah, they'll regroup and get back on track." However, now I'm not so sure as the statistical evidence over the last 18 games says "oh hell nah!" When you barely earn over 30% of available points during roughly one calendar month, doubt and resignation start to creep in.

To prove me wrong, the Thrashers can ill-afford any more extended losing streaks (more than 2 games) and I doubt they can afford anymore than 12 losses. They might be able to get away with 13 losses, IF they can win 23 or 24 games. But lose any more than this, and they are toast! If they can go 3 - 0 - 1 over the next 4-game homestand, that will put them at 49 points with a realistic shot. From there, they will only (I know, I know) need to rack up 19 wins against 13 losses, coupled with 4 OT "loser" points.

Piece of cake, right? Not so much, but 23 of the last 40 games are on home ice and, by and large, the vast majority of them are against teams currently placed 6th through 15th in the conference with a whopping 8 games (and 16 points available) versus 14th place Toronto and 15th place Carolina. Of course, their last 5 games, in April, come against the likes of Washington, Pittsburgh and New Jersey so they better win with frequency between now and March 31st. I'm certainly not counting on it at this point, but a second-half record of 22 - 14 - 5 doesn't seem entirely out of reach.