***LATEST UPDATE***: The blockbuster trade between the Chicago Blackhawks and your Atlanta Thrashers is in a holding pattern (no, not above Hartsfield-Jackson) as it awaits league office approval. But in order for the Thrashers to officially get their bounty of Dustin Byfuglien, Brent Sopel, Ben Eager and Akim Aliu (God bless me!), they will need to do something about the contract snafu that is holding it up. Apparently, the Thrashers, since free-agency has not begun, have more than the allowable 50 contracts on register at league HQ.
Chances are, Nigerian-born winger, Akim Aliu, will be held back until a later date so the Thrashers can relieve themselves of a contract. Todd White buy-out anyone? Hmmm, the tight-fisted ASG probably won't like that idea. We shall see. At any rate, before we dive in and analyze this trade closely, we will await for offical word that the deal has gone through. Till then, please note my Eklund-like prediction below right before the trade went down. Okay, so I didn't get it entirely!! Sidebar: Eklund actually broke the news first (DAYUM5)...wonders cease not!
***Original 6/23 Entry***
Unless you've been all-consumed by the maddeningly protracted effort of the US Americans to score one lousy goal (the US won in extra time to advance to the Round of 16) against an inferior Algerian squad in the World Cup this morning, your mind has probably wandered to the twitter machine a few times in hopes of finding some NHL trade news involving the Atlanta Thrashers. Many Thrash fans possess galvanized hopes that a dream-scenario trade with Chicago will unfold today, tomorrow or on Draft Day in L.A. With the Stanley Cup champion Hawks pressed firmly against the salary cap ceiling (even with the activation of the 5% inflator), Bluelanders everywhere would like to see GM Rick Dudley poach some prized talent away from his former employer.
How dire is the situation in Chicago? So dire that Hawks' GM, Stan Bowman, cannot tender Qualifying Offers (QO's) to his key RFA's (there are at least 6, perhaps 7 they'd like to keep) until they extricate themselves from salary cap prison. This link to nhlnumbers.com clearly indicates that the Blackhawks spent themselves right to the cap ceiling last season. In addition to base salaries, both Patrick Kane and Conn Smythe winner, Jonathan Toews, have likely earned every penny of their regular season bonus incentives. Beyond that, according to at least one source, the Hawks are also on the hook for a reported playoff performance bonus of $1.3M earned by Toews for his MVP post-season effort.
While it is tough to pin down the exact bonus figures and how far Chicago's non-compliance excess extends, there is sure to be a fairly stiff penalty for going over the cap ceiling. Making matters worse is the fact that such a penalty is to be assessed in the following season as a direct dollar for dollar reduction of the Hawks cap number in 2010-11. So despite the 5% (per TSN's Bob McKenzie, new Cap ceiling will be $59.4 M) increase in the cap ceiling, the Hawks will most likely be starting from Ground Zero, as in "oh shit, we have zero money left!!" In order to ice a full roster, the Hawks MUST clear several salaries off the books before June 28th, the deadline for tendering QO's to RFA's.
So as you can see, there will be a ton of interest expressed -- in fact, Bowman has said he has already been contacted multiple times by every NHL GM -- in several of the Hawks' playoff cogs, including center Patrick Sharp, forwards Dustin Byfuglien and Kris Versteeg and perhaps even D-man Brian Campbell. And there is no doubt the Thrashers could be a big player in the Chicago "Swap-Hawks" trade frenzy of 2010.
After crunching some numbers in a spreadsheet, I have come up with a pretty good rough estimate of what the Blackhawks adjusted salary cap ceiling will be next season. The bottom line number is quite startling compared to the expected league-wide ceiling of $59,440,000 or so. Per my calcs, the adjusted figure for the Hawks will be only $54,216,000, a difference of nearly $5.25 M!! Here's how I determined their cap penalty for next season:
-- under CBA, the max allowable cap ceiling was $61,060,000 (w/ bonus cushion)**
**bonus cushion is calculated as 7.5% of ceiling or $4,260,000
-- per nhlnumbers.com, Hawks' final salary was $60,724,000 (diff of $336 k)
-- expected bonus due to Toews for playoffs' MVP: $ 1,300,000
-- net effect of Toews' bonus applied as an overage: $ 964,000
-- Total Penalty in 2010-11: $4.26 M + $964 k = $ 5,224,000
Thus, if you subtract out the overage from the 2009-10 season, Chicago's cap ceiling is more than $5 M less than every other team in the league. This is not a good starting point for a team laden with restricted free-agents (RFA's), some of whom, like goalie Antti Niemi and D-man Niklas Hjalmarsson, are due big raises for a playoffs' job well done. Even if you only use a factor of 1.05 or 1.10 (RFA's are guaranteed QO's that are at least 5% or 10% higher than their previous year base salary depending on where their salary fell on the scale), the Hawks would need to shave off roughly $8.1 M in order to sign enough players to ice a full 20-man roster this fall.
Charged with the daunting task of deciding who should stay and who should go, GM Stan Bowman has made it publicly clear that Toews, Hjalmarsson, Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, Dave Bolland, Marian Hossa and even Sharp are not for sale. Suprisingly, Niemi didn't make this list. Perhaps he is in play as much as anyone since the Hawks will not be able to move Cristobal Huet's albatross-around-the-neck contract worth $5.625 M yearly. Thus, Bowman will be fielding a myriad of offers for various players...some good, some bad and some that are just right. In my estimation, Atlanta is a serious player as Dudley already covets one of their coaches, John Torchetti, for employ in the Peachy City.
Certainly it would seem logical that Dudley would make a play for someone like the imposing Byfuglien, who is not only a force in the crease as a forward, but can also play defense thanks to his superlative puck-moving skills. But what would it cost to acquire such a versatile player? According to Pierre LeBrun of ESPN in his 6/22 blog recap, "a first round pick and a prospect." Well, the Thrashers can certainly get the attention of Bowman since they have 2 first round picks as well as a bounty of near NHL-ready prospects like Patrice Cormier, Ivan Vishnevskiy and Paul Postma. Although Bowman would probably prefer a pick closer to the middle of the first round (see Florida with # 15 via BOS), the Thrash have more cap flexibility to take on salary as well as prospects to choose from.
Personally, I like the idea of offering up the 24th pick, Vishnevskiy (D) and perhaps an additional prospect such as Eric O'Dell (acquired from AHM) if Bowman was willing to throw in the rights to RFA and two-time Stanley Cup winner, Andrew Ladd. Ladd is a rugged 24 y/o 3rd-line winger who is capable of scoring between 15 - 20 goals. Ladd just turned 24 and would be a much more affordable option over UFA Colby Armstrong (RW), who most likely will go to market. I see Ladd as a perfect complement to center Jim Slater and either Patrice Cormier or the recently acquired Freddie Pettersson. 'Big Buf' would solidify the Thrashers 2nd line and provide a force with which to be reckoned on the power play, something ATL desperately needs.
Of course, the permutations and options abound!! What would you like to see Dudley do (right)?
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