After 24 Games, Thrashers in Flight to Greater Heights, BUT WAIT!!!

Who is that guy to the right you ask? Why it's Maxim-um"Thrills, Chills & Spills" Afinogenov, erstwhile winger and human hi-light reel of the Atlanta Thrashers, circa November 30, 2009. But J.C., you do realize Max isn't coming back to the Thrashers right? Of course I do! Then why must you open old wounds by dredging up painful memories of a season lost?

In short, because the timing could not be better. It has been exactly one year to the day since the Thrashers were riding high off their dramatic win over the Florida Panthers in which "Fins for the Win" banged home a feed from Nik Antropov with only 6 ticks of time left on the clock. The breathtaking win gave the Thrashers their 4th win in a row to close out a scorching hot November, a month in which they put together two 4-game winning streaks in a span of 3 weeks to assume one of the top-6 rungs in the Eastern Conference standings. Alas, the seemingly lofty perch would prove too dizzying for this bird with faulty wings and they would plummet back down to earth with a resounding thud to the frozen December landscape. See, before Thrashers fans let their imaginations run wild in the tantalizing wake of this current 5-game winning streak, I feel it is my duty to offer up this cautionary tale of warning so any grandiose dreams of a date with playoff-berth "Dustin-y" (as in Byfuglien) are exploded into a smoking, pile of regret-strewn wreckage.

Speaking of regret, somwhere in the suburbs of Tampa, FL, former Thrashers' D-man Pavel Kubina is probably still muttering in his sleep as nightmares of last season's tragic demise rattle around in his pysche. Perhaps his deep slumber ramblings sound something like this:
“...it starts with the goalies...they’ve been unbelievable. Pavs and Moose have made unbelievable saves in unbelievable performances...We’ve been better at reducing turnovers in our own zone and we’ve been working on it in practice. The penalty-killing has been awesome. Guys are diving to block shots, and it’s a great team effort. It’s fun to be around.” -- excerpt gleaned from Tom Saladino's Associated Press recap of the 11/30/09 contest vs FLA

Well, doesn't that post-game refrain sound eerily familiar? As the blogospheric media buzz revs up into a full-tilt frenzy over the "Thrashawk" led T-birds, who just completed an impressive 9-day span in which 4 of their 5 straight wins came against the likes of Washington, Detroit, Montreal and Boston, fans must fight the temptation to think this team has suddenly arrived as a bona fide Stanley Cup contender. While the recent run of success has been incredibly fun, we must remind ourselves that this team is still a work in progress. And lest we overlook the fact they find themselves in a very similar position to last year's team, which choked it's season away during a disastrous December by effectively losing 9 straight games to finish the month. So why am I sounding the alarm of tempered expectations?? Because I'm a Thrashers fan silly, of course!

But seriously, the statistical similarities between this season and last are quite striking when juxtaposed. After surveying the numbers, any seasoned fan worth their salt would tell you to rein in your expectations, especially when dealing with such a young team not totally familiar with the treacherous effects of random injuries, winter travel and mid-season fatigue that can quietly erode any player's mental state. Before last year's late-December tumble into the doldrums, the Thrashers were sitting pretty with a record of 14 - 7 - 3 after winning 8 of 11 games, ten of which followed the return of Ilya Kovalchuk from injury. This season, the Thrashers struggled to a 6 - 6 - 3 record before winning 6 of their next 9 games to move into sole possession of 7th place in the Eastern Conference. Even more interesting is how these two very different teams arrived at very similar points after 24 games.

To wit:

2009-'10: 79 GF vs. 65 GA on 845 shots* allowed with a save percentage of .9231

2010- '11: 75 GF vs. 65 GA on 843 shots* allowed with a save percentage of .9224

*goals scored and shots allowed adjusted to remove both shootout goals & EN goals

I told you the statistical similarities were striking!! Did I mention both teams started the season with a record of 5 - 4 - 1? And get this, each team scored goals at a very similar rate during their aforementioned hot streaks, both of which preceded the 25th game on their respective schedules. The 2009 Thrashers, sparked by the Russian-born "Comrade Connection", crinkled the twine 38 times in 11 games during an 8 - 1 - 2 stretch. And the 2010 edition, featuring former 'Hawks Andrew Ladd and "Big Dusty Buff" as catalysts, have recently completed a 37 goal onslaught over their last 11 games for a 6 - 4 - 1 mark going into game #25 versus Colorado later tonite. Lastly, both teams had similar goal differentials during their November streaks: plus-14 in 2009 compared to a plus-12 (adjusted for shootouts) during this most recent tear.

So as you can see, such a statistical comparison would give any earnest fan pause. But before you start stuffing hate mail into my comments "inbox", please know that this particular fan, who has been duped by fool's gold before, does harbor some seriously strong optimism with respect to this newest installment of Thrashers' teams. Perhaps I'm just being foolhardy again, but I do have more statistical fodder for my grist mill of cautious optimism. For that, you must tune in again on Wednesday when I present my case as to why this team is different. See you then!